TÜRKİYE'DE ULAŞTIRMA SEKTÖRÜNÜN ENERJİ TALEBİNİN MARKOV MODELİNE DAYALI TAHMİNİ

Enerji, sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedefine yönelik sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel bütün stratejilerin ve planların genel çerçevesini oluşturmaktadır.Günümüzdedünyanın artan nüfusuna ve büyüyen ekonomisine paralel olarak enerjiye olan ihtiyacı da her geçen gün artmaktadır. Ayrıca kişi başına düşen gelirin hızla artması ve buna bağlı olarak yaşam standartlarının yükselmesi ulaşım sektöründen gelen enerji talebinin artmasında önemli bir rol oynamaktadır.Türkiye'de ulaşım sektörünün enerji tüketimi açısından yaklaşık % 22'lik bir paya sahip bu durumun önemini artırmaktadır. Bu yüzden ulaşım sektörünün enerji talebinin doğru tahmin edilmesi, daha verimli taşıma sistemlerini tasarlamak ve uygun fiyat kontrol mekanizması ile gelecek talebini planlamak için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de ulaşım sektöründeki enerji tüketiminin yapı ve dönüşümü, karesel programlama modeline dayalı markov yaklaşımı ile belirlenmekte ve bu kaynakların ileriye dönük kullanım oranları tespit edilmektedir. Böylece, mevcut kararlar doğrultusunda hangi kaynakların ulaşım endüstrisinin kullanımında ön plana çıkacağı belirlenmektedir

FORECASTING TRANSPORT SECTOR’S ENERGY DEMAND BASED ON MARKOV MODEL IN TURKEY

Energy constitutes the general framework of all social, economic and environmental strategies and plans for sustainable development. Today, in parallel with the world's growing population and growing economy, the need for energy is increasing day by day. In addition, the rapid increase in income per capita and the increase in living standards have played an important role in the increase of energy demand from the transportation sector. The fact that the transport sector in Turkey is a large energy sector with a share of 22% in terms of energy consumption increases the importance of this situation. Therefore, it is crucial for the transport sector to accurately estimate energy demand, design more efficient transport systems, and plan the future demand with an appropriate price control mechanism. In this study, the structure and transformation of energy consumption used in transportation sector in Turkey is determined by Markov approach based on the quadratic programming model and the future usage rates of these sources are determined. Thus, in the direction of existing decisions, it is determined which resources will come to the forefront of the use of the transportation industry

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