2010 Sonrasında Orta Doğu'da Değişen Bölgesel Düzende Hamas-FKÖ/Fetih Uzlaşısı ve Yakınlaşması: Neo-Realist ve Neo-Klasik Realist Bir Değerlendirme

Bu makale iki ana soruya değinmektedir. Birincisi, 2010 yılından itibaren bölgesel dinamikler ve iç tercihler, Filistin uzlaşısını ve yakınlaşmasını nasıl etkiledi (sınırlandırdı ya da zorladı)? İkincisi, realist teori, Hamas ve El-Fetih’in uzlaşı ve yakınlaşma konusundaki tercihlerinde ortaya çıkan benzerlikleri ve farklılıkları anlamada bize yardımcı olur mu? 2011 yılından beri, Ortadoğudaki baskın devletler, hesapları ve kontrolleri ötesinde rekabet içerisindeki güçler ve büyük güç elde etmeye çalışan devletler ile devlet-dışı aktörlere yönelik tepkisel ve proaktif bir tutum sergilemektedir. Devlet dışı aktörler olan Hamas ve El-Fetih’in tepki gösterdiği anlaşmazlık, kendilerinin politik tercihlerine ve stratejilerine de işaret eden bölgesel dinamiklerin sınırlamaları ve fırsatlarına ilişkin bakış açılarındaki farklılıklara işaret eden önemli tedbirler/önlemler üzerinedir. Bu makale, özellikle sistemik ve iç faktörlerin karşılıklı etkileşiminin, iki rakip hareketi ulusal birliğin sağlanması noktasında oldukça farklı yörüngelere yerleştirdiği sonucuna varmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, her iki realist akım (neo-realizm ve neo-klasik realizm), farklı açıklama kapasitesi/fırsatları ile birlikte teorik çerçeve olarak uygun görünmektedir.

Hamas-PLO/Fatah Reconciliation and Rapprochement within the Unfolding Regional Order in the Middle East since 2010: Neorealist and Neoclassical Realist Perspectives

This article addresses two main questions.First, how have regional dynamics and domestic pathologies since 2010 affected(i.e., constrained or delimited) Palestinian reconciliation and rapprochement?Second, can the realist theory of international relations (IR) help usunderstand the differences or similarities observed in Hamas’s and Fatah’spreferences for reconciliation and rapprochement? Since the turn of the decade,dominant states in the Middle East have become reactive (and proactive) towardstate and non-state actors; they have become inclined to react to powermagnitude and forces of competition beyond their calculations and control. Thedifferential reactions of both non-state actors, Fatah and Hamas, is due insubstantial measure to marked differences in the windows of opportunity, andconstraints on regional dynamics that have affected their policy preferencesand strategies. This article concludes that the interplay of systemic anddomestic factors has notably set the two rival movements on distinctlydifferent trajectories of national unity. In this sense, both streams ofrealism (neorealism and neoclassical realism) seem appropriate as theoreticalframeworks, albeit with different explanatory power/opportunities.

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