Ercan EROĞLU, Rıza BAYRAK, Mustafa TORUN

SAVUNMA HARCAMALARININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada, savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamına alınan 26 NATO ülkesine ait istihdam, sabit sermaye yatı- rımları ve savunma harcamaları bağımsız değişken, GDP ise bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan 1991-2016 dönemine ait yıllık veriler, Dünya Bankası (WB), Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF), Uluslararası Çalışma Ör- gütü (ILO) ve Stockholm Uluslararası Barış Araştırmaları Enstitüsü (SIPRI)’den elde edilmiştir. Analizde kullanılan değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönem katsayıları Panel AMG tahmincisi yardımıyla tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışma neticesinde, sabit sermaye yatırımı, istihdam ve savunma harcamalarının uzun dönemde büyümeyi etkilediği gözlenmiştir. Sabit sermaye yatırımı ve istihdamın, büyüme üzerinde- ki etkisi pozitif yönde; savunma harcamalarının ise negatif yöndedir. Bu sonuç çerçevesinde; savunma harcamalarının milli gelir içinde optimal değerinin tespit edilmesinin, ardından da yüksek değere sahip savunma harcamalarının stratejik savunma yönetimi ve etkin tedarik zinciri yönetimiyle pozitif dışsallık yaratacak ve büyümeyi teşvik edecek optimal değere çekilmesinin uygun olacağı söylenebilir.

THE EFFECTS OF DEFENSE EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

İn this study, the effect of defense expenditure on growth has been examined. Employ- ment, fixed capital investments, and defense expenditures of 26 NATO countries were used as independent variables, while GDP was as dependent variables. The annual data for the period 1991-2016 were obtained from the World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Labor Organization (ILO), Stockholm Interna- tional Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The long-term coefficients among the vari- ables were estimated with the help of the Panel AMG estimator. As a result of the study, fixed capital investment, employment, and defense expenditures seem to affect GDP in the long-term in all 26 NATO countries. In the long-term, while fixed capital investment and employment have a positive effect on GDP, defense expenditure has a negative effect on it. In that context, it is recommended that the optimal value of defense expen- diture should be determined, and thereafter, with strategic defense management and effective supply chain management, it should be decreased to optimal value to trigger the growth and give way to positive externalities.

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