Forecasting economic growth rate: The case of north cyprus

GDP, ekonomik faaliyetlerin en ciddi göstergelerinden biri olmasına rağmen, Kuzey Kıbrıs’ta bu veriler oldukça geç yayınlanmaktadır. Bu yüzden ekonomide daha isabetli tahmin gerçekleştirebilmek için mevcut veriler kullanarak ARMA Modeli ile ekonominin reel büyüme oranları tahmini yapılmıştır. Ekonomik tahmin modelleri Box-Jenkins yaklaşımı temelinde belirlenerek ex-ante tahminleri için kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, elde edilen ex-post dönem reel büyüme tahminlerinin, makul seviyede isabetli olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlara dayanarak bu çalışmada Kuzey Kıbrıs’ın reel ex-ante büyüme oranlarının tahminleri yapılmaya çalışılmıştır.

Ekonomik büyüme oranının tahmini: kuzey kıbrıs örneği

While GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, it is unfortunately published quite late in North Cyprus. In order to make more accurate forecasting, an auto-aggressive moving average (ARMA) model was used in this study to forecast the real growth rates of the economy. The growth forecasting models that was developed is based on the Box-Jenkins approach which identifies the models, and was used to apply it to ex-ante forecasting. The results indicate that the forecasts relating to the ex-post period real growth rates, that the developed models gave, were reasonably accurate. Based on this result an attempt is made to forecast the ex-ante period real growth rates of North Cyprus.

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