KADDAFİ SONRASI LİBYA'NIN GÜVENLİK DEĞERLENDİRMESİ

Kaddafi sonrası Libya politik istikrarsızlık, ekonomik çöküş ve iç savaşla şekillenmiştir. Birbirine rakip Şafak Operasyonu ve Onur Operasyonu, 2011 sonrası hiçbir grubun tek başına otorite sağlayamaması üzerine birbiriyle savaşmaktadır. Bu hükümetlerin hiçbiri devlet olma gerekliliklerini yerine getirememekte ve Libya’nın nüfusunda memnuniyetsizliğe yol açmaktadır. Cihadist gruplar, bu memnuniyetsizlik ve Libya’nın parçalanmış yapısından yararlanmışlardır. Libya’nın geçirgen sınırları cihadist grupların yabancı cihadistleri Libya’da kullanmasının önünü açmıştır. En güçlü ve en tehditkâr cihadist terörist grup IŞİD, Irak ve Suriye’den sonra Libya’da da bir merkez kurmuştur. Libya’dan, Kuzey Afrika’daki diğer ülkeleri ve Avrupa’yı tehdit etmektedir. Aralık 2016’da Sirte’deki üssünden kovulmasına rağmen, IŞİD’in militanları yakalanamamış veya öldürülememiştir. Yeniden güçlenip Sirte’yi alana kadar, ülkenin ortasındaki çölde saklanarak düşük bir profil göstermektedir. Terörizm tehdidinin yanında Libya’nın sınırları üzerindeki kontrol kaybı Libya’yı, Sahra-altı Afrika, Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika’dan gelen göçmenler için transit bir göç merkezi yapmıştır. Bu durum Suriye’den gelen göçlerle sarsılan Avrupa için bir tehdit arz etmektedir. Terörizm ve göçmen tehditlerine karşı, Avrupa Birliği Libya’da istikrarı sağlamak ve göçlerin önünü kesmek için politik, ekonomik ve sosyal önlemler almaktadır. Fakat Libya’da politik istikrarsızlığı bitirecek, tüm tarafları içerecek bir hükümet kurma deneyimi başarılı olamamıştır; bu yüzden istikrarsızlık ve iç savaş devam etmektedir. Daha da önemli olarak, IŞİD’in Libya’daki varlığı Libya’daki güvenlik durumunu kötüleştirmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Libya, Güvenlik, İslam Devleti, Avrupa Birliği

ASSESSING SECURITY OF POST-GADDAFİ LIBYA

Post-Gaddafi Libya is characterized by political instability, economic collapse, and civil war. The rival governments Operation Dawn and Operation Dignity have been fighting with each other as no single group effective succeeded in establishing authority since 2011. None of these governments fulfill basic requirements of being a government, leading to dissatisfaction among Libyan population. Jihadist terrorist groups have taken advantage of this dissatisfaction emanated from Libya’s fragmented situation. Libya’s porous borders enable these groups to recruit foreign jihadists. ISIL the most powerful and threatening jihadist terrorist group, establish a base in Libya after Syria and Iraq. From Libya, it threatens North African countries and Europe. Although ISIL was driven out of Sirte in December 2015, its militants were neither captured nor killed. ISIL keeps low profile by hiding in desert in middle part of the country to regain its strength to recapture Sirte again. In addition to terrorism threat, Libya’s loss of control over borders made Libya a transit country. The migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and the North Africa migrate to Europe by using Libya. This also threatens Europe whose stability had already been shaken by migrants coming from Syria. To counter terrorism and migrant threat, the EU tried to initiate political, economic, and social measures to provide stability in Libya to reduce flow of migrants. The creation of unity government that is supposed to bring political stability, however, failed so the instability and civil war in Libya still continues. More importantly, ISIL presence worsens security situation in Libya.

Keywords:

Security, Libya, Islamic State, the EU,

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