MERTER AKINCI, ERGÜN AKTÜRK, ÖMER YILMAZ

Petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Opec ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeleri için panel veri analizi

Dünya ekonomileri için yarattığı uzun dönemli makroekonomik etkiler nedeniyle petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler çok sayıda araştırmaya konu olmuştur. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler 19802011 döneminde OPEC ve petrol ithalatçısı ülkeler için panel veri analizleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları, petrol fiyatları ile ekonomik büyüme arasında hem eşbütünleşme ve hem de nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. İlaveten, OPEC ülkelerinde petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın iktisadi büyümeyi tetiklediği, ithalatçı ülkelerde ise fiyatlardaki yükselişlerin büyüme sürecini olumsuz etkilediği gözlenmiştir.

The relationship between oil prices and economic growth: Panel data analysis for OPEC and oil-imported countries

The relationship between oil price and economic growth is the subject of many studies because oil price creates long-term macroeconomic impacts for the World economies. Therefore in this paper, the relationship between oil price and economic growth is investigated by using panel data analysis over the period of 19802011 for OPEC and oil-imported countries. The results of panel data analysis show that there is a both cointegration and causality relationship between the oil price and economic growth. In additon, it is observed that an increase in oil price triggers the economic growth in OPEC countries; in oil-imported countries, however, a rise in price affect the economic growth process adversely.

PDF

___

Abeysinghe, Tilak (2001), Estimation of Direct and Indirect Impact of Oil Price on Growth, Economics Letters, 73(2), 147-153.

Asafu-Adjaye, John (2000), The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries, Energy Economics, 22(6), 615-625.

Ayadi, O. Felix (2005), Oil Price Fluctuations and the Nigerian Economy, OPEC Review, 29(3), 199-217.

Barsky, Robert B. ve Lutz Kilian (2004), Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(4), 115-134.

Bernanke, Ben S. (1983), Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106.

Berument, M. Hakan, Nildag Basak ve Nukhet Dogan (2010), The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries, Energy Journal, 31(1), 149-175.

Brown, Stephen P. A. ve Mine K. Yücel (2002), Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42(2), 193-208.

Burbidge, John ve Alan Harrison (1984), Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions, International Economic Review, 25(2), 459-484.

Chang, Youngho ve Joon F. Wong (2003), Oil Price Fluctuations and Singapore Economy, Energy Policy, 31(11), 1151-1165.

Charemza, Wojciech W. ve Derek F. Deadman (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK.

Cunado, Juncal ve Fernando P. Gracia (2003), Do Oil Price Shocks Matter? Evidence for Some European Countries, Energy Economics, 25(2), 137-154.

Darby, Michael R. (1982), The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession, The American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.

Doroodian, K. ve Roy Boyd (2003), The Linkage Between Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth with Inflation in the Presence of Technological Advances: A CGE Model, Energy Policy, 31(10), 989-1006.

Du, Limin, He Yanan ve Chu Wei (2010), The Relationship Between Oil Price Shocks and Chinas Macroeconomy: An Empirical Analysis, Energy Policy, 38(8), 4142-4151.

Elder, John ve Apostolos Serletis (2010), Oil Price Uncertainty, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(6), 1137-1159.

Enders, Walter (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, New York.

Farzanegan, Mohammad R. ve Gunther Markwardt (2009), The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy, Energy Economics, 31(1), 134-151.

Ferderer, J. Peter (1996), Oil Price Volatility and the Macroeconomy, Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1), 1-26.

Finn, Mary G. (1995), Variance Properties of Solows Productivity Residual and Their Cyclical Implications, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(5-7), 1249-1281.

Gisser, Micha ve Thomas H. Goodwin (1986), Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 18(1), 95-103.

Guo, Hui ve Kevin L. Kliesen (2005), Oil Price Volatility and U.S. Macroeconomic Activity, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 87(6), 669-683.

Hamilton, James D. (1983), Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248.

Hamilton, James D. (1988), A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle, Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 593-617.

Hamilton, James D. (1996), This Is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220.

Hamilton, James D. (2003), What is an Oil Shock?, Journal of Econometrics, 113(2), 363-398.

Hamilton, James D. (2009), Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08, NBER Working Paper, No: 15002, 1-69.

Hanabusa, Kunihiro (2009), Causality Relationship Between the Price of Oil and Economic Growth in Japan, Energy Policy, 37(5), 1953-1957.

Hooker, Mark A. (1996), What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 195-213.

Huntington, Hillard G. (1998), Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?, Energy Journal, 19(4), 107-132.

Jayaraman, T. K. ve Chee K. Choong (2009), Growth and Oil Price: A Study of Causal Relationships in Small Pacific Island Countries, Energy Policy, 37(6), 2182-2189.

Jimenez-Rodriguez, Rebeca ve Marcelo Sanchez (2005), Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries, Applied Economics, 37(2), 201-228.

Jorgenson, Dale W. ve Peter J. Wilcoxen (1992), Global Change, Energy Prices and US Economic Growth, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 3(1), 135-154.

Kaya, Vedat ve Ömer Yılmaz (2006), Bölgesel Enflasyon Bölgesel Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Zaman Serisi ve Panel Veri Analizleri, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 21(247), 62-78.

Kilian, Lutz (2008), Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter fort he U.S. Economy?, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 216-240.

Kim, In-Moo ve Prakash Loungani (1992), The Role of Energy in Real Business Cycle Models, Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(2), 173-189.

Kutlar, Aziz (2007), Ekonometriye Giriş, 1. Baskı, Nobel Yayınları, Ankara.

Lardic, Sandrine ve Valerie Mignon (2008), Oil Prices and Economic Activity: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach, Energy Economics, 30(3), 847-856.

Leduc, Sylvain ve Keith Sill (2004), A Quantitative Analysis of Oil-Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy and Economic Downturns, Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(4), 781-808.

Lee, Kiseok ve Shawn Ni (2002), On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(4), 823-852.

Lee, Kiseok, Shawn Ni ve Ronald A. Ratti (1995), Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability, Energy Journal, 16(4), 39-56

Lorde, Troy, Mahalia Jackman ve Chrystol Thomas (2009), The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on a Small Open Oil-Producing Country: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago, Energy Policy, 37(7), 2708-2716.

Mork, Knut A. (1989), Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamiltons Results, Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 740-744.

Mork, Knut A., Oystein Olsen ve Hans T. Mysen (1994), Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries, Energy Journal, 15(4), 19-36.

Mory, Javier F. (1993), Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?, Energy Journal, 14(4), 151-162.

Papapetrou, Evangelia (2001), Oil Price Shocks, Stock Market, Economic Activity and Employment in Greece, Energy Economics, 23(5), 511-532.

Prasad, Arti, Paresh K. Narayan ve Jashwini Narayan (2007), Exploring the Oil Price and Real GDP Nexus for a Small Island Economy, the Fiji Islands, Energy Policy, 35(12), 6506-6513.

Rotemberg, Julio J. ve Michael Woodford (1996), Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(4), 549-577.

Tabata, Shinichiro (2006), Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russias GDP Growth, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 47(1), 95-111.

Tarı, Recep (2005), Ekonometri, 3. Baskı, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, İstanbul.

Turner, Paul (2009), Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Approach: Are We Using the Correct Critical Values?, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 24(5), 825-831.