2010

Enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği

Enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki, politika yapıcıları vt: araştırmacıların yoğun ilgisini çekmektedir. Bu ilişkiyi ortaya koyan ampirik kanıtlar karmaşıktır ve ikna edici değildir. Bu çalışmada, Johansen-Juselius ve Stock-Watson eşbütünleşme testleri ile Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testleri kullanılarak, enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında 1970-2009 periyodunda incelenmektedir. Eşbütünleşme test sonuçları, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Başka bir ifadeyle, enerji tüketimi ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif ve güçlü bir etkiye sahiptir. Ayrıca Toda-Yamamoto test sonuçları enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında her hangi bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye'de enerji darlığının ekonomik büyümeyi negatif olarak etkiliyebileceğini ifade etmektedir.

The impact of energy consumption on economic growth: The case of Turkey

The relationship between energ}' consumption and economic growth has attracted a lot of interest from policy makers and researchers. Empirical evidence linking this relationship has been mixed and inconclusive. This study examines the link between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkish Economy over period 1970-2009 by employing^ Johansen-Juselius and Stock-Watson cointegration tests and Toda-Yamamoto causality tests. The results of cointegration tests show that there is a coinlegraiioit relationship between variables. In other words, energy consumption has a positive and strong affect on economic growth. Farther, the results of Toda-Yamamoto test indicate that (here is no causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. This results mean that energy shortness can affect economic growth negatively in Turkey.

PDF

___

Abaidoo, R. (2010), "Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in An Emerging Economy; Augmented Granger Causality Approach, Research in Business and Economics Journal, 1-15.

Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (2009), The Economics of Growth, MIT Press. Cambridge, MA.

Aitor, C. A. and Ainhoa, Z. A. (2007), "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Spain", BİL TOK I Series, number 200701.

Akarca, A. T. and Long, T. V. (1979). "Energy and Employment: A Time Series Analysis of the Causal Relationship", Resources and Energy, 5: 326-331.

Akarca, A.T. and Long, T.V. (1980), "On the Relationship between Energy and GNP: A Re-examination", Journal of Energy and Development, 5: 326-33 1.

Alım, M. S. (2006), "Economic Growth with Energy", MPRA Paper, 1260: 1-25,

Allen, R. C. (2009), The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective, Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.

Altınay, G. and Karagol. E. (2005), "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey", Energy Economics, 27: 849-856.

Arrow, K. J. (1962), "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing", Review of Economic Studies, 29(3): 155-173.

Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000), "The Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries'7, Energy Economics, 22: 615-625.

Aydın, F. H. (2010), "Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme", Erciyes üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 35, Ocak-Temmuz, 3 17-340.

Ayres, R. U. and Allen, V. K. (1969), "Production, Consumption and Externalities", American Economic Review, 59 (3): 282-297.

Ayres, R. U. and Warr, B. (2005), ''Accounting for Growth: The Role of Physical Work", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 16: 181 -209.

Cleveland, C. J., Costanza, R., Hall, C. A. S. and Kaufmann, R. K. (1984), "Energy and The U.S. Eeconomy: A Biophysical Perspective", Science, 225: 390-897.

Costanza, R. (1980), "Embodied Energy and Economic Valuation", Science, 2 i 0: 1219-1224.

Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979), "Distribution of the Estimator for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427-431.

Dunkerley, J. (1982), "Estimating Energy Demand: The Developing Countries", Energy Journal, 23: 79-99.

Ebohon, O. J. (1996), "Energy, Economic Growth and Causality in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Tanzania and Nigeria", Energy Policy, 24: 447-453.

Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T. J. and Stock, J.- H. (1996), "EfficientTestsfor an AutoregressiveUnit Root", Econ0metrica, 64: 813-826.

Engle, R. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987), "Cointegration and Error-Correction Representation, Estimation and Testing", Econometrica, 55: 251-276.

Georgescu-Roegen, N. (1979), "Energy and Matter in Mankind's Technological Circuit", Journal of Business Administration, 10: 107-127.

Gever, J., Kaufmann, R. K., Skole, D. and Vörösmarty, C. (1986), Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades, Ballinger. Cambridge, MA.

Haipeng W., Peng, T. and Ping, J. (2005), "Electricity Consumption and Economic ~ Growth in China", IEEE. 2: 133 1-1334.

Hall, C.A.S., Cleveland, C. J. and Kaufmann, R. K. (1986), Energy and Resource Quality: The Ecology of the Economic Process, Wiley Interscience. New York.

Hamilton, J.D. (J994), Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press, New Jersey.

Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990), "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Application to The Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52: 169-210.

Kraft, J. and Kraft, A. (1978), "On The Relationship between Energy and GNP", Journal of Energy and Development, 3: 401-403.

Lucas, R. E. (2002), The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future, In Lectures on EconomicGrowth, R. E. Lucas: 109-188, Harvard University Press. Cambridge, MA.

Masih, A. M. M. and Masih, R. (1996), "Electricity Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from A Multi-Country Study based on Cointegration and Error Correction Modeling Techniques", Energy Economics, 18: 165-183.

Newey, W. K. and West, K. D. (1994), "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation", Review of Economic Studies, 61 (4): 63 1-53.

Noor S. and Siddiqi, M. W. (2010), "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asian Countries: A Co-integrated Panel Analysis", International Journal of Human and Social Sciences, 5(14): 921-926.

Phillips. P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988), "Testing for Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrika, 75: 335- 346.

Rebelo, S. T. (1991), "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy. 99(3): 500-521.

Shiu, A, and Lum, P. L. (2003), "Electricity Consumption and Economic growth in China", Energy Policy, 32(1): 47-54.

Smile, V. (1994), Energy in World History, Westview Press.

Squalli, J. and Wilson, K. (2006), "A Bounds Analysis of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the GCC", Working Paper -06-09, EPRU, Zayed University, Abu Dhabi.

Solow, R. (1956), "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70: 65-94.

Stern D. i. (1997), "Limits to Substitution and Irreversibility in Production and Consumption: A Neoclassical Inteqnretation of Ecological Economics", Ecological Economics, 21: 197-215.

Stern, D. A. (2010), "The Role of Energy in Economic Growth", CCEP Working Paper, 3: 1-50.

Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1993), "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems", Econometrica, 61: 783-820.

Templet, P. H. (1999), "Energy, Diversity and Development in Economic Systems: An Empirical Analysis", Energy Policy, 30: 223-233.

Toda, H. Y. and Yamamoto, T. (1995), "Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with possibly Integrated Processes", Journal of Econometrics, 66: 225-250.

Toman, M. A. and Jemeikova, B. (2003), "Energy and Economic Development: An Assessment of the Atate of Knowledge", Energy Journal, 24 (4): 93-112.

Wietze, L. and Kees, Van M. (2005), "Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey: Is there a Co-integration Relationship?", Energy Economics, 27(6): 849-856.

Wrigley, E. A. (1988), Continuity, Chance, and Change: The Character of the Industrial Revolution in England, Cambridge University Press. Cambridge.

Yemane W. R. (2004), "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Timeseries Experience for 17 African Countries", Energy Policy, 34(10): 1106-1114.

Yu, S. H. and Choi, J. Y. (1985), "The Causal Relationship Between Energy and GNP: An International' Comparison", Journal of Energy and Development, 10 (2): 249-272.

Yu, E. S. H. and Hwang, B. K. (1984), "The Relationship between Energy and GNP: Further Results", Energy Economics, 6: 186-190.