Dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatırımları ve dış ticaret bilançosu: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama

Dolaysız yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının (DYY) yöneldikleri ülkelerdeki birçok makroekonomik gösterge üzerinde önemli etkileri olmaktadır. Bu akımlardan beklenen etkiler genellikle olumlu olmakla birlikte, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından bir takım olumsuz etkiler de söz konusu olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada bir ülkeye DYY girişleri ile ödemeler dengesinin en önemli unsuru olan dış ticaret bilançosu arasındaki ilişkinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu çerçevede Türkiye’de kısa ve uzun dönem ayırımı çerçevesinde DYY’nın dış ticaret üzerine etkisi 1992- 2011 dönemi için sınır testi yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde (1992-2011) ve kısa dönemlerin birinde (2002-2011) DYY ihracatı pozitif yönde etkilemekte, ithalat ile DYY arasında ise bir nedensellik bulunmamaktadır.

Foreign direct ınvestments and foreign trade balance: The case of Turkey

Inward foreign direct investments (IFDI) influence many macoreconomic indicators of the recipient countries. While these effects are in generaly positive, some negative effects are able to come into being, especially in developing countries. The aim of this study is to examine causal relationships between IFDI and the trade balance of a country, which is the most important factor of foreign payments balance. In the empirical section, which is based on the Bound Test, effects of IFDI on trade balance of Turkey have been analyzed. The empirical findings show positive causality between IFDI and exports in the long run (1992- 2011) and one of the short runs (2002-2011). There is no relationship between IFDI and imports.

PDF

___

Akinlo, A. Enisan (2006), “The Stability of Money Demand in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach”, Journal of Policy Modelling, No:28, pp.445-452.

Alguacil, M.Teresa and Vicenta Orts, (2002), “A Multivariate Cointegrated Model Testing for Temporal Causality between Exports and Outward Foreign Investment: The Spanish Case”, Applied Economics, 34, pp. 119-132

Altıntaş, Halil (2009), “Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Girişi ve Dış Ticaret Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi: 1996-2007”, Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, Cilt:64, Sayı:2, ss.1-30.

Bajo-Rubio, Oscar and Maria Montero-Munoz (1999), “The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment on Trade Flows: Some Evidence for Spain, 1977-1992”, Economic and Financial Modelling, Vol:6, pp.177-196.

Blomstrom, Magnus, Robert E. Lipsey, Ksenia Kulchycky (1988), “U.S. and Swedish Direct Investment and Exports”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pp.257-302, http://www.nber.org/chapters/c5853, 05.04.2011.

Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J. and Lee, J. W., (1998), “How does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?”, Journal of International Economics, 45, pp. 115-35.

Clausing, Kimberly A. (2000), “Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade”, Economic Inquiry, Vol:38, No:2, pp.190-205.

De Mello, Luiz R.,(1997), “Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries and Growth: A Selective Survey”, Journal of Development Studies, 34(1), pp. 1-34.

Delice, Güven, (2003), Economic Determinants of German Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey, International Economics Working Paper, 2003-02, Universität Potsdam.

Delice, Güven ve Erdinç Tutar, (2006), “Uluslararası Sermaye Akımlarının Bileşimi ve Finansal Krizler”, içinde Ekonomik Kriz Öncesi Erken Uyarı Sistemleri, Editörler: Halil Seyidoğlu ve Rıfat Yıldız, Arıkan Yayınları, ss. 263-290.

Deutsche Bundesbank, (2003), The Role of FDI in Emerging Market Economies compared to Other Forms of Financing: Past Developments And Implications For Financial Stability, Deutsche Bundesbank, International Relations Department, Frankfurt, 24 February.

Dickey, David A. and Wayne E. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, Vol:74, No:4, pp.427-431.

Dickey, David A., Wayne E. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol:49, No:4, pp.1057-1072.

Dritsaki, Melina, Chaido Dritsaki and Antonios Adamopoulos (2004), “A Causal Relationship Between Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth for Greece”, American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol:1, No:3, pp.230-235.

Engle, Robert F. And Clive W.J. Granger (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, No:55, pp.251-276.

Falk, Martin and Mariya Hake (2008), A Panel Data Analysis on FDI and Exports, FIW Research Report, No:12, http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/f iwstudie12.pdf, 15.05.2011.

Ghazali, Ahmad, (2010), “Analyzing the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment Domestic Investment and Economic Growth for Pakistan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue 47, pp. 123-131.

Goldberg, Linda S. and Michael W. Klein, (1997), Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Real Exchange rate Linkages in Southeast Asia and Latin America, NBER Working Paper, 6344, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Gray, H. Peter, (1998). “International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: The Interface”, in: Globalization, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment, J. H. Dunning (Ed.), Oxford: Elsevier, pp. 19–27.

Hossain, Muhammed Amir, (2008), Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Bangladesh’s Balance of Payments: Some Policy Implications, Dhaka, Bangladesh: Policy Note 0805, Bangladesh Bank.

Johansen, Soren, and Katerina Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Infrence on Cointegration : With Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, No:52, pp.169-210.

Kar, Muhsin ve Fatma Tatlısöz (2008), “Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Hareketlerini Belirleyen Faktörlerin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Karamanoğlu Mehmet Bey Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Yıl:10, Sayı:14, ss.436-458.

Karagöz, Murat ve Kadir Karagöz, (2006), “Türk Ekonomisinde İhracat ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım İlişkisi: Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt:3, Yıl:2, Sayı:1, ss.117-126.

Kıran, Burcu, (2010), Causal Links between Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in Turkey, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 3, No.2, pp. 150-158.

Kumar, Nagesh, (2002), Globalization and the Quality of Foreign Direct Investment, Oxford University Press, New Delhi.

Lipsey, Robert E., (1991), Foreign Direct Investment in the U.S. and U.S Trade, NBER Working Paper, 3623, National Bureau of Economic Research.

Liu, Xiaming, Chengeang Wang and Yingqi Wei, (2001), “Causal Links between Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in China”, China Economic Review, 12, pp. 190-202.

Milberg, William, (1999), “Foreign Direct Investment and Development: Balancing Costs and Benefits”, International Monetary and Financial Issues for the 1990s, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Vol XI, pp. 99-115.

Moosa, Imad A., (2002), Foreign Direct Investment: Theory, Evidence and Practice, Palgrave, New York

OECD, (1996), OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Third Edition, , Paris, OECD.

OECD, (2000), Main Determinants and Impacts of Foreign Direct Investment on China’s Economy, Working Paper, No. 2000/4, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Directorate for Financial, Fiscal and Enterprise Affairs.

Pacheco-Lopez Penélope, (2005), “Foreign Direct Investment, Exports and Imports in Mexico”, The World Economy, 28(8), August, pp. 1157-1172.

Pain, Nigel, and Katharine Wakelin, (1998), Export Performance and The Role Of Foreign Direct Investment, Manchester School (N.SS ,66), pp. 62–88.

Peseran, M.Hashem, Yongcheol Shin and Richard J. Smith, (2001), “Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol:16, pp.289-326.

Pham, Thi Hong Hanh and Thi Anh-Dao Tran (2009), “Panel Causal Relationship between FDI and Exports. Evidence from a Sector Level Analysis of Vietnam”, in submission to The Developing Economies. http://www.akes.or.kr/eng/papers(2009)/hanh.pdf, 23.06.2011

Razmi, Arslan, (2005), The Effects of Export-Oriented, FDI-Friendly Policies on the Balance of Payments in a Developing Economy: A General Equilibrium Investigation, Economics Department Working Paper Series, Paper 66.

Tarı, Recep (2005), Ekonometri, Kocaeli Üniversitesi Yayınları, No:172, Kocaeli.

UNCTAD, Global Invetsment Report 2010, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development , Division on Investment and Enterprise, Geneva.

Wong, Koi Nyen and Tuck Cheong Tang, (2007), “Foreign Direct Investment and Electronics Exports: Exploratory Empirical Evidence from Malaysia’s Top Five Electronics Exports”, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 6, No. 14 pp. 1-8.

Yılmazer, Mine, (2010), “Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Dış Ticaret ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Deneme”, Celal Bayar Üniversitesi, S.B.E. Dergisi, Cilt:8, Sayı:1, ss.241-260.

Zivot, Eric, Donald W.K. Andrews, (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol:10, N0:3, pp.251-270.