Türk İthalatının Gelir ve Göreli Fiyat Esneklikleri: Bir ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin 2003:01-2017:12 dönemine ait toplam ithalat, ara malı (hammadde) ithalatı, tüketim malı ithalatı ve yatırım (sermaye) malı ithalat talep fonksiyonları ile bu fonksiyonlara ait uzun ve kısa dönem gelir ve göreli fiyat esneklikleri ARDL ve Hata Düzeltme Modeli (ECM) ile tahmin edilmiştir. ARDL tahmin sonuçları; ithalat miktarının, reel gelirin, göreli fiyatların ve küresel risk algısının (vix) eşbütünleşik olduğunu, tüm gelir esnekliklerinin uzun dönemde elastik (yatırım malı ithalatı hariç) ancak kısa dönemde inelastik olduğunu, uzun dönemde fiyat esnekliğinin en yüksek tüketim malı ithalatında kısa dönemde ise yatırım malı ithalatında olduğunu, küresel risk algısının özellikle yatırım malı ithalatı üzerinde azaltıcı etkisini göstermiştir. Ekonomik büyümenin dış ticaret dengesini bozucu etkisi politika tasarım sürecinde gözetilmelidir.

Income and Relative Price Elasticities of Turkish Import: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

In this study, total import, intermediate goods (raw material) imports, consumption goods imports, investment (capital) goods import demand functions of Turkey and the long-run and short-run income and relative price elasticities of them were estimated by ARDL and Error Correction Methods (ECM) for the period 2003:01- 2017:12. Results of ARDL estimations show that import volume, real income, relative price and perception of global risk (vix) are cointegrated, all long-run income elasticities are elastic (excluding investment goods import) but short-run are inelastic, price elasticity is highest in consumption goods import in long-run and investment goods import in short run, importance of the reducing effect of the global risk perception (vix) on the investment goods imports. The distorting effect of economic growth on the foreign trade balance should be considered in the policy design process.

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