İran’da Kalkınma Planlamasının Tarihsel Sosyolojisi:İdeoloji, Rant ve Olumsallıkların Önemi

İran’da altmış yıllık ulusal kalkınma planlaması geleneğinin varlığına karşın, ülke çeşitli ekonomik sorunlarla karşı karşıyadır. Bu araştırmanın temel amacı İran’ın kalkınma izlencelerinde gözlemlenen yetersizlikler ve başarısızlıkların temelinde yatan nedenleri incelmektir. Bu amaçla, araştırmada tarihsel sosyoloji yaklaşımı kullanılarak, İran’da ulusal kalkınma planlaması düşüncesi ve uygulaması irdelenmiştir. İncelemede İran Merkez Bankası ve İran İstatistik Merkezi’nin verilerinden yola çıkarak kalkınma projelerinin başarısızlığının altında yatan temel nedenler tartışılmıştır. İran’da kalkınma planlaması düşüncesi ve sonuçlarını ele alan araştırmaları iki gruba ayırabiliriz. Birinci gruptaki araştırmalar ana-akım iktisadın modellerini temel alarak “evrensel” modelleri İran verileriyle sınamıştır. Oysa, ikinci grup incelemeler evrensel modeller yerine ülkeye özel koşullar, olumsallıklar ve toplumsal devinimleri göz önünde bulundurarak kalınma izlencelerinin sonuçlarını açıklamaya çalışmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, yazar İran’da kalkınma planlaması düşüncesi ve uygulamasının ülkenin tarihsel, toplumsal ve siyasal dinamizmlerinin yansıra küresel eğilimlerden etkilendiğini ileri sürmektedir. Böylece, petrol gelirlerinden beslenen bir çeşit ideolojik pragmatizmin demokratik kurumların oluşumunu engelleyerek kalkınma planlamalarındaki eksikliklere yol açtığı saptanmıştır. İran’ın ekonomik ekosisteminin kurucu güçleri ve sonuçları olan söz konusu iç-içe örülmüş değişkenler uzun-dönem planlama rasyonalitesine karşı direnmiştir. Araştırmanın sonuçlarına göre, toplumda kapsayıcılığı artıran toplumsal ilerlemeler, ötekileşmiş kesimlere olanak sunarak demokratik oyunun kurallarında gelişmeye yol açıp çok-yönlü kalkınmanın en önemli amacı olan toplumsal refaha katkıda bulunabilir.

The Historical Sociology of National Development Planning in Iran: Ideology, Rent and Contingencies Matter

Despite more than six decades of national development planning, Iran suffers from different economicshortcomings. Accordingly, this study aims to investigate the underlying reasons for setbacks andshortcomings in the national development planning in Iran. Studies devoted to analyzing the idea ofdevelopment planning and economic setbacks in Iran can be categorized into two groups: the first groupconsists of studies that use tools of mainstream economics to understand causal relationships betweenvariables while the second group involves scholarships that try to understand the role of country’shistorical, social and political dynamics in the economic outcomes. This study adopts the historicalsociology approach, to analyze the ideas put forth by the second group of scholars who have taken specialdynamics of Iranian society into account. To this end, I examined the evolution of ideas developed by thesecond group of scholars. Moreover, I exploited statistics published by the Central Bank of Iran andStatistical Center of Iran to investigate the degree to which the ideas of the second group can explain theoutcomes and shortcomings of the development plans implemented in Iran. The results of the study showthat they diagnosed a lack of pragmatism, oil rents, and weak institutional conditions as the reasons forfailure in development planning in Iran. These intertwined variables are constituent forces and outcomesof an economic ecosystem that have resisted long-term planning rationales. The study concludes that anysocial development that enhances inclusiveness in society through giving voice to outsiders along withimprovement in the rules of the democratic game can promote social welfare as the most important targetof a multidimensional development plan.

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