Covid-19 Salgını Sürecinde Türk Ihracatına Ilişkin Bir Analiz

Bu makale Covid-19 salgınının Türkiye ihracatı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Çalışmamızdakullanılan veriler Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi ihracat veri tabanından alınmıştır. Araştırmamız sektörelHirschmann endeksi, sektörel ticari yoğunlaşma oranı, sektörel ticaret yoğunluğu ve ihracatın teknolojiksınıflandırmaları gibi seçilmiş ticaret endekslerinin salgın dönemindeki Türk sektörel ihracatınauygulanmasına dayanmaktadır. Sonuçlarımız, Mart-Mayıs 2019 tarihleri arasında 0,66 olan Türkiye sektörelHirschmann endeksinin 2020 yılı aynı zaman aralığında 0,62'ye düştüğünü, sektörel ihracatın tabanınıngenişlediğini ve Türkiye'nin şu anda daha dengeli bir sektörel ihracat dağılımına sahip olduğunugöstermektedir. Salgın nedeniyle, Türk ekonomisinin motoru olarak kabul edilebilecek otomotiv ve tekstilihracatı sırasıyla %53 ve %45 oranlarında düşerken, taze meyve ve sebze ihracatı %14 artmıştır. İhracatınyoğunlaşma oranı ve teknolojik yoğunluğunun araştırılması sonucunda yüksek teknoloji ve orta-yüksekteknoloji ürünlerinin tüm ihracat sepetindeki paylarının düştüğü ve Türkiye'nin özellikle Covid-19 krizindeotomotiv ve tekstil ihracatına bağımlılığının azaldığı ortaya koyulmuştur. Sektörel ticaret yoğunluğu rakamları,Ukrayna gibi bazı uluslararası pazarların seçilmiş Türk ihracatı için önemlerini arttırdığını göstermektedir. 1 Haziran 2020 itibarıyla yeniden açılan Türkiye ekonomisi, artmakta olan küresel talep ile yakın zamanda Türklirasının yabancı para birimleri karşısındaki değer kaybıyla birlikte, küresel ve bölgesel değer zincirlerininyeniden düzenlenmesinden daha fazla yararlanarak krizin ekonomik etkilerini azaltırken, önümüzdekidönemde dengelenme sürecine girerek ülkenin yüksek teknolojili, katma değer üreten bir ihracat üssünedönüşmesi için yeni bir fırsat oluşturabilir.

An Analysis on Turkish Exports During Covid-19 Pandemic

This paper analyzes the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the exports of Turkey. A data setcompiled from Turkish Exporters Assembly’s export database is used for our study. The research is based onthe applications of selected trade indices such as the sectoral Hirschmann index, sectoral trade concentrationratio, sectoral trade intensity and technological classifications on Turkish sectoral exports during the outbreak.Our results indicate that Turkish sectoral Hirschmann index which amounted to 0.66 between March and May2019 decreased to 0.62 in the same time frame in 2020 demonstrating that the sectoral exports have broadenedthe export base, and Turkey currently has a more balanced sectoral export dispersion. Because of the outbreak,the automotive and textiles exports, which can be considered as the engines of Turkish economy, plummetedby 53% and 45% respectively, while the exports of fresh fruits and vegetables increased by 14%. Investigationsof trade concentrations and technological intensities of the exports reveal that the shares of high tech andmedium-high tech products in the whole export basket decreased and Turkey’s dependence particularly onexports of automotive and textiles plummeted during Covid-19 crisis. Sectoral trade intensity findings inferthat some international markets like Ukraine have become more important for selected Turkish exports. AsTurkish economy reopened as of June 1, 2020, increasing world demand compounded by the recentdepreciation of the Turkish lira against foreign currencies can create a new opportunity for Turkey to rebalanceher economy in the future and pivot to a high-tech, surplus-generating export base by benefiting more from there-organization of global and regional value chains while mitigating economic impacts of the crisis.

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