Panel Pedroni Testi ile Küresel Ticaret Savaşlarının Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin Refahına Etkisi

Dünyanın iki büyük ekonomisi ABD ve Çin arasında 2008 küresel finans krizi sonrası giderek artan bir boyutta ticaret savaşları başlamıştır. Hali hazırda ABD %24, Çin %16 payla dünyanın neredeyse yarısına yakın bir ticaret hacmine sahip iki ülkedir. Dolayısıyla ABD ve Çin arasındaki ticaret savaşlarının doğrudan veya dolaylı yoldan tüm ülkeleri olumsuz etkileyebileceği ileri sürülmektedir. Bu olumsuzluk özellikle ekonomik anlamda dışa bağımlı ülkelerin refah düzeyi ile doğrudan ilintilidir. Bu durumdan Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin de (Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Türkmenistan, Tacikistan, Özbekistan) etkilenebileceği düşünülmüştür. Bu bağlamda 1999-2019 dönemi için, Pedroni Panel Eş bütünleşme Test tekniği kullanılarak Türk Cumhuriyetlerinin Ekonomik büyümeleri ile ticaret hacimleri arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Buna göre bu iki değişken uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türk Cumhuriyetleri, ABD, Çin, Küresel Ticaret, Ekonomik Büyüme, Refah Düzeyi

The Effect of Global Trade Wars on The Welfare of Turkish Republics With Panel Pedroni Test

Ever-increasing trade wars have begun between the USA and China, the two major economies of the world, after the 2008 global financial crisis. Currently, the USA with a share of 24% and China with a share of 16% are two countries, which have a trade volume of almost half of the world. Therefore, it is argued that trade wars between the USA and China may negatively affect all countries directly or indirectly. This negativity is especially related directly to the welfare level of economically foreign-dependent countries. It was thought that the Turkish Republics (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) could be affected by this situation. In this context, the relationship between the economic growth and trade volumes of the Turkish Republics for the period between 1999 and 2019 was analysed by using the Pedroni Panel Co-integration Test technique. Accordingly, it was seen that these two variables acted together in the long term.

Keywords:

Turkish Republics, USA, China, Global Trade, Economic Growth,

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