Denge Reel Döviz Kuru Tahmininde NATREX Modeli: Türkiye Uygulaması

Döviz kurundaki ani değişmeler ekonomileri büyük ölçüde etkilemektedir. Bununla beraber denge reel döviz kuru kavramı önem kazanmaktadır. Ekonominin iç ve dış dengesiyle beraber hareket eden denge döviz kuru sürdürülebilirliğide ifade eder. Kur politikasının belirlenmesinde reel döviz kuru önemlidir. Fakat yalnızca reel döviz kuru yeterli değildir. Ekonomiyi etkileyen temel dinamiklerinde dahil edildiği denge reel döviz kurunun hesaplanması gerekmektedir. Denge reel döviz kurunun tahminine yönelik literatürde çok sayıda modern denge reel döviz kuru modeli yer almaktadır. Yaygın olarak kullanılan modeller ise, Temel Denge Döviz Kuru Modeli FEER(fundamental equilibrium exchange rate) , Davranışsal Denge Döviz Kuru Modeli BEER (behavioural equilibrium exchange rate),Doğal Reel Döviz Kuru Modeli NATREX(Natural Real Exchange Rate) modelleridir. NATREX modeli veya diğer denge döviz kuru modelleri ile yapılan çalışmalardan elde edilen sonuçların ülke ekonomilerinin dinamikleri açısından değerlendirilmesi için hesaplanan denge reel döviz kurunun, gerçekleşen reel döviz kurları ile karşılaştırılarak denge değerinden ne kadar sapma gösterdiğinin ölçülmesi gerekmektedir. Modern denge döviz kuru modellerinden NATREX denge reel döviz kurunun hesaplanmasında orta ve uzun dönem ayrımına gitmektedir. Bununla beraber küçük ve büyük ekonomiye sahip ülkeler için farklı yapısal eşitlikler önermektedir. Bu özelliği, NATREX modelini diğer denge reel döviz kuru modellerinden daha avantajlı yapmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’ye ait orta dönemdenge reel döviz kurunun hesaplanmasında NATREX modelinin kullanılmasının uygun olacağı düşüncesi ile 1980-2011 yılları arası NATREX modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Tahmin edilen modelden elde edilen orta dönem denge reel döviz kurları gerçekleşen reel döviz kurları ile karşılaştırılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

NATREX, Döviz Kuru

NATREX Model in Equalibrium Real Exchange Rate Forecast: Application of Turkey

The economies are affected greatly by sudden changes in the exchange rate. At the same time, the concept of equalibrium real exchange rate is gaining importance. The equilibrium exchange rate acting together with internal and external balance of the economies refers to sustainability. Real exchange rate is important in determining the exchange rate policy. But the real exchange rate itself is not enough. The equilibrium exchange rate which includes the main dynamics of the economics should be calculated. Many modern equilibrium real exchange rate model is located in the literature for the equilibrium real exchange rate estimation. The widely used models, fundamental equilibrium exchange rate model FEER (fundamental equilibrium exchange rate), behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model BEER (behavioral equilibrium exchange rate), natural real exchange rate model NATREX (Natural Real Exchange Rate) models. The calculated equilibrium real exchange rate should be measured that how much deviation it has shown from the balance value by comparing with the actual real exchange rate to evaluate terms of economies dynamics of results obtained from studies with NATREX model or other equilibrium exchange rate models.NATREX which is One of the modern equilibrium exchange rate model goes to the medium and long term distinction in calculating equilibrium real exchange rate. However, it proposes different structural equations for countries with small and large economics. This feature makes NATREX model more advantageous than other equilibrium real exchange rate models. In this study, with the idea of using NATREX model would be appropriate in calculating the medium term equilibrium real exchange rate belonging to Turkey, NATREX model was estimated between the years 1980 and 2011. The medium term equilibrium real exchange rates obtained from the estimated model was compared to the actual real exchange rates.

Keywords:

NATREX, Exchange Rate,

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