Back to the year when it all started: local determinants of party preferences In 2002 Turkish elections

İslami eğilimleri olan Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi’nin (AKP) 2002 seçimlerini kazanarak iktidara gelmesi ile birlikte Türkiye siyasetinde çok önemli bir değişim yaşandı. Seçimler Türkiye siyasetini derinden belirleyen “tsunami” etkisi yaratmış olsa da, Türkiye seçim coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan farklılaşmaların ne denli kalıcı olduğunu bir kez daha gözler önüne serdi. Coğrafi ağırlıklandırılmış regresyon olarak bilinen bir teknik yardımıyla bu yazıda, Türkiye’deki eşitsiz seçim coğrafyasının ardında yatan nedenler araştırılmaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye siyaset sahnesinin iki temel aktörü olan AKP ve CHP’nin oy düzeyini belirleyen yerel etmenler açısından belirgin bir karşıtlık içinde olduklarını ortaya koymaktadır. AKP’nin, geleneksel sağ partilerin tersine, kent yoksulları ile Anadolu’nun hızla gelişen bölgelerinde kendine bir taban bulmuş olmasına karşın, sosyal demokrat CHP büyük ölçüde kentli seçkin kesimlerle kısıtlı kalmış görünmektedir. Bu bulgu, çoğu araştırmacı tarafından Türkiye siyasetinin en belirgin özelliklerinden biri olarak görülen “merkez-çevre” ayrımının yeni bir görüntüsü olarak ele alınmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Türkiye

Herşeyin değiştiği yıla geri dönüş: 2002 genel seçimlerinde parti tercihlerini yerel düzeyde belirleyen etmenler

The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the 2007 general elections in Turkey by a large margin and became the first party since the 1980s to increase its votes in two consecutive elections while in power (1). Although the elections were held in a highly tense political climate arising from controversy surrounding the presidential elections (Bacik, 2008), the results came as no surprise to many and received far less attention in the media, academia and public compared to the previous elections held in 2002. The exceptionally low turnout rate of 59.3%, as opposed to 84.3% in 2002, is one of the obvious indications of low public interest in the elections.

Keywords:

Turkey,

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