Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacası (FHB): G8 Ülkeleri üzerine bir analiz

1970’lerin sonundan itibaren Bretton Woods sisteminin çökmesi ve küresel bütünleşmenin özellikle son elli yılda önemli ölçüde artmasıyla birlikte finansal serbestleşme ve küreselleşme hız kazanmıştır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve portföy yatırımları açısından yabancı sermaye akımları, özellikle yüksek büyüme oranlarına sahip, nispeten ucuz ancak nitelikli işgücüne sahip gelişmekte olan piyasalarda artmıştır. Feldstein ve Horioka (1980) çalışmasında temel olarak tasarruflardan yatırımlara doğru bir içsel ilişki olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Uluslararası iktisat ve Makroekonomik süreçlerle sofistike ilişkiler silsilesi ile açıklanabilen bu ilişki literatürde Feldstein – Horioka Bulmacası (FHB) olarak ifade edilmektedir. Bu çalışma, G8 ülkelerindeki (ABD, Almanya, Fransa, İngiltere, İtalya, Japonya, Kanada ve Rusya) ulusal tasarruflar ve yatırımlar arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiyi incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. 1996 – 2020 dönemleri için yıllık frekanstaki verilerden yararlanılarak yatay kesit bağımlılığı, delta homojenliği, Pesaran (2007) CIPS birim kök sınamaları ve Westerlund (2007) ve Westerlund ve Edgerton (2007) Bootstrap Panel Eşbütünleşme testleri ve son olarak Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse(2011) Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlar G8 ülkelerinde FHB’nin önemli ölçüde mevcut olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre tasarruflardan yatırımlara doğru bir aktarımına ilişkin kanıtlara rastlanamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Feldstein-Horioka Bulmacası, Ulusal Tasarruflar, Yatırımlar, G-8 Ülkeleri

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle (FHP): An analysis on G8 Countries

Along with the collapse of the Bretton Woods system from the end of the 1970s and the increase in global integration, especially in the last fifty years, financial liberalization and globalization have accelerated. In terms of portfolio investments and foreign direct investments, foreign capital flows increased especially in emerging markets with high growth rates and relatively low-cost but skillful labor. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) basically argued that there was an internal relationship from savings to investments. This relationship, which can be explained by a series of sophisticated relations with international economics and macroeconomic processes, has been expressed as the Feldstein - Horioka Puzzle (FHP) in the literature. This study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between national savings and investments in the G8 countries (the USA, Germany, France, England, Italy, Japan, Canada, and Russia). Cross-sectional dependency, Delta Homogeneity, Pesaran (2007) CIPS unit root tests, Westerlund (2007) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007) Bootstrap Panel Cointegration tests, and finally Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) Causality tests are performed utilizing the annual data over the period 1996–2020. The obtained results of the study reveal that FHP is not significantly present in the G8 countries. Accordingly, there is no evidence of a direct transfer from savings to investments.

Keywords:

Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle, National Savings, Investments, G-8 Countries,

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