Bruce H. RANKİN, Işık A. AYTAÇ, N. Banu BİRDAL KAVAKLI

2008 Ekonomik krizinin olası etkileri ve Türkiye’de kentlerde evli çiftlerin yaşadığı hanelerde kullanılan başetme yöntemleri

Bu çalışma bireylerin ve ailelerin ekonomik kriz dönemleriyle nasıl başettiklerini incelemektedir. 2008 ekonomik krizinin ardından kentsel Türkiye’de ailelerin geliştirmiş olduğu başetme mekanizmalarından hangilerinin ne yoğunlukta kullanıldığını ve bunları belirleyen etkenleri sorgulayan bu çalışmada işgücü piyasası faaliyetleri, tüketim kararları, varlık ve borç kullanımı, hane yapısı ve düzeninde değişiklikler ve sosyal destek mekanizmaları gibi çeşitli başetme stratejileri üzerine yoğunlaşılmıştır. Türkiye genelinde kentlerde yaşayan 1100 haneden elde edilen veriler, ailelerin neredeyse tüm stratejilere başvururken, çoklu başetme yöntemlerini de eş zamanlı kullandıklarını gösteriyor. Ailelerin pek çoğu (yüzde 55 ile 89 arası) uyguladıkları başetme stratejilerinin ekonomik krizden kaynaklandığını belirtiyor. Bu da gösteriyor ki, belirgin bir çoğunluk bu davranış şeklini kriz ile ilişkilendirmektedir. Çoklu regresyon analizi sonuçları, tüm ekonomik zorluk değişkenlerinin (iş kaybı, uzun süre işsizlik, gelirde azalma gibi) kullanılan başetme stratejisi sayısı üstünde kuvvetli pozitif etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ekonomik zorluklara ek olarak, diğer değişkenlerin etkilerinden arındırılmış olarak, hanede yaşanan ekonomik sıkıntı (fatura ödeyememe gibi) ile başetme stratejileri arasında da pozitif ve kuvvetli bir ilişki görülmektedir. Bu çalışma, ekonomik krizlerin sosyal sonuçlarını inceleyecek daha fazla deneysel çalışmaya ihtiyaç olduğunu da vurgulamaktadır.

The 2008 economic crisis and household coping strategies among married urban families in Turkey

This paper explores how individuals and families cope during periods of economic crisis. We examine the household coping strategies of urban families during the 2008 economic crisis in Turkey, assessing the frequency of coping strategies used and factors affecting the level of coping across a broad range of coping types, including labor market activities, expenditure decisions, asset and liability use, household structure and composition adjustments, and social support use. Using a nationally- representative sample of 1100 urban households, the results show that nearly all strategies were used and many households also employed multiple coping strategies simultaneously. A large number of households (55% to 89%) report that their use of these coping strategies was due to the economic crisis. Multiple regression results show a positive and significant relationship between economic hardship (such as job loss, long unemployment duration, and reduced earnings) and greater use of coping strategies. In addition to economic hardship and net of all other socio-demographic variables, there is also a positive and significant relationship between economic strain (such as difficulty of paying bills) and more intensive use of coping strategies. The paper ends with a call for more empirical study of the social implications of economic crises.

PDF

___

AYTAÇ, I. A. ve RANKIN, B. H. (2008), Unemployment, economic strain, and family distress: The impact of the 2001 economic crisis. New Perspectives on Turkey 38 (Spring), s. 181-203.
BALISACAN, A. ve EDILLON, R. (2001), Socioeconomic dimension of the Asian crisis: Impact and household response in the Phillipines. In T. V. Hoa (Ed.), The social impact of the Asia crisis, s. 57-84, New York: Palgrave.
BBC World Service Poll (2009), Economic Systems Needs Major Changes: Global Poll. 31 Mart 2009. http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/mar09/BBCEcon_Mar09_ rpt.pdf.
BUĞRA, A. ve KEYDER, Ç. (2003), New poverty and the changing welfare regime of Turkey. Report prepared for the United Nations Development Programme.
CAMERON, L. (2000), The impact of the Indonesian financial crisis on children: An analysis using the 100 villages data. Innocenti Working Paper No. 81. Florence: UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre.
ERDOĞAN, N. (2002), Yoksulluk halleri: Türkiye’de kent yoksulluğunun toplumsal görünümleri. İstanbul Demokrasi Kitaplığı Yayınevi
FALLON, P. ve LUCAS, R. (2002), The impact of financial crises on labor markets, household incomes, and poverty: A review of evidence. The World Bank Research, 17, s. 21-45.
FISZBEIN A., GIOVAGNOLI, P., ve ADURIZ, I. (2002), Argentina’s crisis and its impact on household welfare. Argentina Poverty Update 2003, Background Paper No. 1.
FRANKENBERG, E., THOMAS, D. ve BEEGLE, K. (1999), “The real costs of Indonesia’s economic crisis: Preliminary findings from the Indonesia family life surveys” RAND Labor and Population Program Working Paper Series 99-04.
GARUBA, D. (2006), Survival at the margins: Economic crisis and coping mechanisms in rural Nigeria. Local Environment 11(1), s. 17-36.
HILL, H. ve CHU, Y. (2001), An overview of the key issues. In Y. Chu ve H. Hill (Eds.), The social impact of the Asian financial crisis, s. 1-26, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.
HOWELL, J. (1996), Coping with transition: Insights for Kyrgyzstan. Third World Quarterly 17(1), 53-69.
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF), (2009), From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong? Chapter 3 in World Economic Outlook Crisis and Recovery. April 2009. IMF: Washington, D.C.
JONES, G., HULL, T., ve AHLBURG, D. (2000), The social and demographic impact of the southeast Asian crisis of 1997-99. Journal of Population Research (May) 17(1), s. 39-62.
KITTIPRAPAS, S. (2000), Thailand: The Asian financial crisis and social changes. In T. V. Hoa (Ed.), The social impact of the Asian financial crisis, s. 57-84, New York: Palgrave.
LEE, Y. ve LEE, H. (2000), Korea: Financial crisis, structural reform and social consequences. In T. V. Hoa (der.), The social impact of the Asian financial crisis, s. 57-84, New York: Palgrave.
MOSER, C. (1996), Confronting crisis: A summary of household responses to poverty and vulnerability in four poor urban communities. Environmentally Sustainable Development Studies and Monograph Series No. 7. The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
ÖNİŞ, Z. (2003), Domestic Politics versus Global Dynamics: Towards a Political Economy of the 2000 and 2001 Financial Crises in Turkey. The Turkish Economy in Crisis içinde, Z. Öniş ve B. Rubin (der.), Frank Cass: Londra.
RANKIN, B. H. (2011), “Economic Crises and the Social Structuring of Economic Hardship: The Impact of the 2001 Turkish Crisis in Comparative Perspective.” New Perspectives on Turkey 44 (Fall), s. 5-34.
RANKIN, B. H. ve AYTAÇ, I. A. (2009), “Household Coping Strategies during the Turkish Economic Crisis” Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of American Sociological Association, August, San Francisco, CA, USA.
ŞENSES, F. (2003), Economic crisis as an instigator of distributional conflict: The Turkish case in 2001. In Z. Öniş ve B. Rubin (Eds.), The Turkish economy in crisis, s. 92-119, Londra: Frank Cass.
STALKER, P. (2000), Beyond krismon: The social legacy of Indonesia’s financial crisis. United Nations Children’s Fund, Innocenti Research Centre. Available at http://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/pdf/insight5.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2007.
SÖNMEZ, M. (2002), 100 göstergede kriz ve yoksullaşma. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
SUMARTO, S., WETTERBERG, A. ve PRITCHETT, L. (1998), The social impact of the crisis in Indonesia: Results from a nationwide kecamatan survey. SMERU Report Working Paper. http://www.smeru.or.id/report/workpaper/crisimpactkecsurv/kecsurv.htm. Accessed 22 March 2007.
SUSSANGKARN, C., FLATTERS, F., ve KITTIPRAPAS, S. (1999), Comparative social impacts of the Asian economic crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines: A preliminary report. TDRI Quarterly Review 14(1), s. 3-9.
TEPAV, UNICEF, DÜNYA BANKASI. (2009), Ekonomik Kriz Türkiye’de Ailelerin Refahını Etkiliyor: http://www.tepav.org.tr/upload/files/haber/1256049740r6571. Refah_Izleme_Anketi_Ozeti.pdf.
THOMAS, D. ve FRANKENBERG, E. (2005), Household response to the financial crisis in Indonesia: Longitudinal evidence on poverty, resources and well-Being. California Center for Population Research, On-line Working Paper Series, CCPR-05605.
THOMAS, D., BEEGLE, K. ve FRANKENBERG, E. (2000), Labor market transitions during an economic crisis: Evidence from Indonesia. Labor and Population Program, RAND, Working Paper Series 00-11.
TUNALI, İ. (2003), Background study on labor market and employment in Turkey. Prepared for the European Training Foundation, Torino, İtalya.
TÜİK Haber Bülteni, Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması 2011 Ağustos Dönemi Sonuçları (Temmuz, Ağustos, Eylül 2011), Sayı: 228, 15 Kasım 2011.
VERICK, S. (2009), Who is Hit Hardest During a Financial Crisis? The Vulnerability of Young Men and Women to Unemployment in an Economic Downturn. International Labor Organization (ILO) and IZA Discussion Paper NO. 4359, August 2009.
WORLD BANK (2001), Argentina household risk, self-insurance and coping strategies in urban Argentina. Report No. 22426-AR.
WORLD BANK(2003), Turkey: Poverty and coping after crisis. Report No. 24185-TR.