Türkiye ve Almanya'nın kişisel gelir dağılımına ekonofizik yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ve Almanyadaki kişisel gelir dağılımını analiz etmektir. Yapılan analizlerde Türkiye için TÜİK tarafından uygulanan Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Anketinin ham verileri kullanılırken, Almanya için Alman Ekonomik Araştırmalar Enstitüsünün yapmış olduğu Alman Sosyoekonomik Panel Çalışmasının ham verileri kullanılmıştır. Klasik iktisatçılar gelir dağılımını genellikle lognormal dağılım ile açıklamaktadırlar. Ancak lognormal dağılım kuyruk bölgelerindeki güç yasasını açıklamadığından, en uygun dağılım olarak kullanıllanıldığında çoğu zaman problem yaratmaktadır. Yeni bir alan olan ekonofizik, söz konusu problemi çözme noktasında karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu çerçevede ekonofizik; iktisadi problemleri istatistiksel fiziğin yöntemlerini kullanarak çözmeye çalışan, yeni bir disiplin olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Çalışmada yapılan analizlerde Matlab R2009b yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre; hem Türkiyede, hem de Almanyada nüfusun %1 - %2lik bir kısmının kişisel gelir dağılımı genelleştirilmiş Pareto dağılımı ile uyumlu iken; geri kalan kısım tamamen farklı bir dağılım izlemektedir. Bu doğrultuda düşük gelirlilerin dağılımının lognormal, gamma ve üstel dağılıma uygunluğu incelenmiş ve bunun sonucunda dağılımın gamma dağılımını izlediği tespit edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuç K-S testi uygulandığında doğrulanamamıştır; ancak ekonofiziğin amacı dağılımı temel olarak belirlemektir. Özetle, yapılan analiz neticesinde; hem Türkiyede hem de gelişmiş bir ülke olan Almanyada, nüfusun çok düşük bir çoğunluğunu oluşturan yüksek gelirliler ile nüfusun büyük çoğunluğunu temsil eden düşük ve orta gelirliler arasında üzere keskin bir ayrımın olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Econophysics approach to the personal income distribution ın Turkey and Germany

The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and compare the personal income distribution in Turkey (20062009) and in Germany (19842008) by using econophysics approach. The Income and Living Conditions Survey by Turkish Statistical Institute and The German Socio-Economic Panel Study by The German Institute for Economic Research were used as data source. Income distribution models are generally explained with lognormal distribution by mainstream economics. Due to the fact that lognormal has no power tails and has a weakness to explain high income groups, it is problematic when it is used as a best fit. As a new science econophysics, which s concern is to apply methods and tools of statistical physics to economical problems, may repair this lack of mainstream economics. Within this context, all analyses were implemented numerically in Matlab R2009b. The study displays that personal income distribution do not follow the lognormal distribution both in Turkey and Germany. Whilst empirical personal income distribution is consistent with a generalized Pareto Law for the high income group (1% - 2%), it has a totally different distribution model for the low-middle (99% - 98%) distribution group. To analyze lower income distribution; lognormal, gamma and exponential distribution were applied to the data. Gamma distribution fits the data in both countries. On the other hand, these results weren t confirmed by K-S test. However, econophysics does not intent to capture its fine features, but only the baseline of the distribution. As a conclusion, the outcomes show that there is a distinct separation between high and low-middle income groups both in Turkey as a developing county and in Germany as a developed one.

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