Türkiye’de Döviz Kuru Kanalının Etkinliğinin Asimetrik Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonlarıyla Sınanması

Parasal aktarım mekanizması, merkez bankası tarafından uygulanan para politikası kararlarının ekonomideki reel değişkenleri hangi yollarla etkilediğini açıklamaya çalışan sürecin bütünüdür. Literatürdeki parasal aktarım mekanizması kanallarından biri de döviz kuru kanalıdır. Döviz kuru kanalı kısaca para otoritesi tarafından faiz oranlarının değiştirilmesi yoluyla uygulanan politikaların kurda değişiklik yaratmak suretiyle ihracatithalat düzeyini ve toplam çıktı miktarını etkileme mekanizmasıdır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için döviz kuru kanalının etkinliği, şokların pozitif ve negatif bileşenlerine ayrıştırıldığı asimetrik etki-tepki fonksiyonlarıyla 2005:1-2016:12 dönemini kapsayacak biçimde incelenmiştir. Türkiye’de döviz kuru kanalının standart etki-tepki fonksiyonlarıyla elde edilen sonuçlara göre etkin olmadığı, asimetrik şoklar üzerinden ise kısmen geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Testing the Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Channel in Turkey by Asymmetric Impulse-Response Functions

The monetary transmission mechanism is the overall process of explaining how monetary policy decisions by the central bank affect real variables in the economy. One of the channels of the monetary transmission mechanism in the literature is the exchange rate channel. The exchange rate channel is the mechanism to affect the level of export-import and the total output by monetary changes through the exchange rate. In this study, the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel in Turkey is tested during 2005:1- 2016:12 by the asymmetric impulse-response functions. According to the findings, the exchange rate channel is not valid in Turkey whereas asymmetric shocks provide partial evidence of the validity of this channel.

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