Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testleri ile Analizi

Türkiye için yıllık verilerle gerçekleştirilen bu çalışmada 1983-2015 döneminde enflasyon, tasarruf ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki otoregresif gecikmesi dağıtılmış model (ARDL), simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile analiz edilmiştir. ARDL ve hata düzeltme modeli sonucunda enflasyon oranı %1 arttığında ekonomik büyümenin kısa dönemde %0,07, uzun dönemde ise %0,23 oranında azalacağı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, tasarruftaki artış da ekonomik büyümeyi kısa ve uzun dönemde pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Hatemi-J (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testinin sonuçları enflasyon ve tasarrufun negatif şoklarından ekonomik büyümenin pozitif şoklarına ve enflasyonun negatif şoklarından tasarrufun pozitif şoklarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin olduğunu göstermektedir.

Testing for Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality between Inflation, Savings and Economic Growth in Turkey

In this study, the relationship between inflation, saving and economic growth have been analyzed with autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), symmetric and asymmetric causality tests for Turkey using annual data for the period from 1983 to 2015. The result of the ARDL and error correction model shows that when the inflation rate increases by 1%, the economic growth decreases by 0.07% in the short run and 0.23% in the long run. The increase in saving also affects economic growth positively in the short-long run. According to the results of Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test, unidirectional causality is running from the negative shocks of savings and inflation to the positive shocks of economic growth and from the negative shocks of inflation to the positive shocks of savings.

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