Türkiye'de kamu harcamaları ve özel tüketim ilişkisi

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları ile özel tüketim arasındaki ilişkiler 1980-2010 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle analiz edilmiştir. Uzun dönem ilişkileri araştırmak amacıyla Engle-Granger ko-entegrasyon testi, kısa dönem ilişkileri araştırmak amacıyla hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Tahmin sonuçları iki değişkenin ko-entegre olduğunu ve uzun dönemde kamu harcamalarındaki %1’lik artışın özel tüketim harcamalarını %0,52 birim artırdığını göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları kamu harcamaları ile özel tüketim arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisini içeren Keynesyen yaklaşımı destekler niteliktedir.

The relationship between public expenditure and private consumption in Turkey

In this study, the relationship between public expenditure and private consumption is analyzed by using annual data for the period 1980-2010 in Turkey. Engle-Granger co-integration test and error correction model are used to investigate the long and short term relationships, respectively. The estimated results show the two variables are cointegrated and in the long run, a 1% increase in public expenditure raises the private consumption by 0.52%. The findings of the study provide evidence to support the Keynesian approach that public expenditure and private consumption have a complementarity relation with each other.

___

Afonso, A. (2006), “Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in Europe New Evidence”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 675.

Afzal, M. ve Abbas, Q. (2010), “Wagner’s Law in Pakistan: Another Look”, Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2(1), 12-19.

Ahmed, S. (1986), “Temporary and Permanent Government Spending in an Open Economy: Some Evidence for the United Kingdom”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 17(2), 197-224.

Ambler, S., Bouakez, H. ve Cardia, E. (2008), “The Effect of Public Spending on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence”, The Center for Interuniversity Research in Quantitative Economics (CIREQ), Cahier 16.

Aschauer, D.A. (1985), “Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand”, The American Economic Review, 75(1), 117-127.

Bailey, J.M. (1971), National Income and the Price Level: A Study in Macroeconomic Theory, McGraw-Hill, New York.

Barro, J.R. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, The Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095-1117.

Barro, J.R. (1981), “Output Effects of Government Purchases”, Journal of Political Economy 89(6), 1086-1121.

Bergman, M.U. ve Hutchison, M.M. (2010), “Expansionary Fiscal Contractions: Re-evaluating the Danish Case”, International Economic Journal, 24(1), 71-93.

Berument, H. ve Doğan, B. (2004), “The Asymmetric Effects of Government Spending Shocks: Empirical Evidence from Turkey”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 6(1), 33-51.

Blanchard, O. ve Perotti, R. (2002), “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(4), 1329-68.

Bocutoğlu, E. (2012), Karşılaştırmalı Makro İktisat Teoriler ve Politikalar, 5. Baskı, Murathan Yayınevi, Trabzon.

Chiu, L.R. (2001), “The Intratemporal Substitution Between Government Spending and Private Consumption: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan”, Asian Economic Journal, 15(3), 313-23.

Dahmardeh, N., Pahlavani, M. ve Mahmoodi, M. (2011), “Government Spending and Private Consumption in Selected Asian Developing Countries”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 64, 140-146.

D’Alessandro, A. (2010), “How can Government Spending Affect Private Consumption? A Panel Cointegration Approach”, European Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Sciences, 18, 40-57.

Dickey, A.D. ve Fuller, A.W. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.

Düzgün, R. (2007), “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcaması ve Özel Tüketim”, Ekev Akademi Dergisi, 32, 321-333.

Düzgün, R. ve Bilgili, E. (2008), “Kamu Tüketim Harcaması ve Özel Tüketim: Orta Asya Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi Dergisi, 2, 75-88.

Enders, W. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series, 2nd Edition, John Willey&Sons, USA.

Engle, R. ve Granger J.W.C. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.

Erdoğan, L. (2007), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezi: Türkiye Uygulaması”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 117-132.

Ergün, M. (2005), Sürdürülebilir Maliye Politikası ve Maliye Politikasının Ekonomik Aktivite Üzerine Etkileri: AB Uyum Sürecindeki Türkiye Örneği ve AB Ülkeleri Deneyimleri, DPT Uzmanlık Tezleri, 2684, 1-134.

Fatás, A. ve Mihov, I. (2001), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence”, CEPR Discussion Paper, 2760, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Gali, J., Salido, L.D.J. ve Valles, J. (2007), “Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 5(1), 227-270.

Ganelli, G. ve Tervala, J. (2009), “Can Government Spending Increase Private Consumption? The Role of Complementarity”, Economics Letters, 103, 5-7.

Garcia, A. ve Ramajo, J. (2005), “Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption Behaviour: The Spanish Case”, Empirical Economics, 30, 115-135.

Giavazzi, F. ve Pagano, M. (1990), “Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries”, NBER Working Paper Series, 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.

Granger, J.W.C. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438

Granger, J.W.C. (1988) “Some Recent Development in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.

Hjelm, G. (2002), “Is Private Consumption Growth Higher (Lower) During Periods of Fiscal Contractions (Expansions)?”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(1), 17- 39.

Ho, T. (2001), “The Government Spending and Private Consumption: A Panel Cointegration Analysis”, International Review of Economics&Finance, 10(1), 95-108.

İlgün, F.M. (2010), “Genişletici Mali Daralma Hipotezinin Temelleri ve Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 35,233-253.

Karras, G. (1994), “Government Spending and Private Consumption: Some International Evidence”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 26(1), 9-22.

Khan, M.H. (2004), “Defence Expenditure and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Causality Evidence from Pakistan”, State Bank of Pakistan Working Paper, 6.

Kormendi, R.C. (1983), “Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior”, The American Economic Review, 73(5), 994-1010.

Kwan, K.Y. (2006), “The Direct Substitution Between Government and Private Consumption in East Asia”, NBER Working Paper, 12431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge.

Mackinnon, G.J. (1996), “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.

McDermott, J.C. ve Wescott, F.R. (1996), “An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments”, IMF Staff Papers, 43(4), 725-53.

Narayan, K.P., Nielsen, I. ve Smyth, R. (2008), “Panel Data, Cointegration, Causality and Wagner's Law: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provinces”, China Economic Review, 19, 297-307.

Nickel, C. ve Vansteenkiste, I. (2008), “Fiscal Policies, the Current Account and Ricardian Equivalence”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 935, Germany.

Nieh, C.C. ve Ho, T. (2006), “Does the Expansionary Government Spending Crowd out the Private Consumption? Cointegration Analysis in Panel Data”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 133-148.

Okubo, M. (2003), “Intratemporal Substitution Between Private and Government Consumption: The Case of Japan”, Economics Letters, 79(1), 75-81.

Perotti, R. (1999), “Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(4), 1399-1436.

Schclarek, A. (2007), “Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption in Industrial and Developing Countries”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(4), 912-39.

Tagkalakis, A. (2008), “The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Recessions and Expansions”, Journal of Public Economics, 92, 1486-1508.

Ulusoy, A. (2007), Maliye Politikası, 5. Baskı, Eflatun Matbaası, Trabzon.

Wang, L. ve Gao, W. (2011), “Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Private Consumption: Evidence from China”, China&World Economy, 19(2), 60-76.

Zaghini, A. (2001), “Fiscal Adjustments and Economic Performing: A Comparative Study”, Applied Economics, 33, 613-24.