Merve Büşra ALTUNDERE DOĞAN, İbrahim GÜNEY, Mustafa ÇAKIR

Avro Bölgesi Şoklarının Türkiye'ye Etkileri: Global VAR Yaklaşımı

Bu makale Türkiye’nin Avro Bölgesi ve ülkeleri ile olan ekonomik iliúkilerini Global VAR modeli kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Analiz dünyann farkl bölgelerinden 28 ülkeye ait 1996-2016 dönemini kapsayan çeyreklik verilere dayanmaktadr. Avro Bölgesi kaynakl pozitif reel üretim, reel ihracat, reel ithalat ve reel döviz kuru úoklarnn Türkiye ekonomisine etkileri genelleútirilmiú etki tepki fonksiyonlar (GIRF) analiziyle incelenmiútir. Araútrma sonuçlar, (i) Türkiye ile Avro Bölgesi makroekonomik de÷iúkenlerinin birbirleriyle ba÷lantl oldu÷unu, (ii) ticaret kanallarnn bu ba÷lantlarda önemli rol oynad÷n ve (iii) ticaret kanallarnn etki derecesinin ülkelere göre farkllaút÷n göstermektedir.

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