Türkiye’de Kayıt Dışı İstihdam ve Turizm Talebi Arasındaki Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik İlişkilerinin Analizi

Bu çalúmann amac Türkiye’de 2013M01-2016M12 dönemi için kayt dú istihdam oran ile turizm talebi arasndaki iliúkilerin araútrlmasdr. Çalúmada, Hacker ve Hatemi-j (2006) simetrik, Hatemi-j (2012) asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile Hatemi-j (2014) asimetrik etki-tepki fonksiyonlar kullanlarak de÷iúkenler arasndaki iliúkiler araútrlmútr. Simetrik nedensellik testi sonuçlarna göre sadece turizm talebinden kayt dú istihdama do÷ru, asimetrik nedensellik testi sonuçlarna göre ise turizm talebinin negatif úokundan kayt dú istihdamn pozitif úokuna do÷ru, turizm talebinin pozitif úokundan kayt dú istihdamn negatif úokuna do÷ru ve son olarak kayt dú istihdamn negatif úokundan turizm talebinin pozitif úokuna do÷ru nedensellik iliúkileri oldu÷u bulgularna ulaúlmútr. Asimetrik etkitepki fonksiyonlar sonuçlarna göre asimetrik nedenselliklerin yönleri negatiftir

Analysis of Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality between InformalEmployment and Tourism Demand in Turkey

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between informal employment and tourism demand over period 2013M01-2016M12 in Turkey. Hacker and Hatemi-j (2006) symmetric, Hatemi-j (2012) asymmetric causality tests and Hatemi-j (2014) asymmetric impulse-response functions have been employed. Symmetric and asymmetric causality test results suggest that there are causality from tourism demand to informal employment, from negative shock of tourism demand to positive shock of informal employment, from positive shock of tourism demand to negative shock of informal employment and from negative shock of informal employment to positive shock of tourism demand. Asymmetric impulseresponse functions show that the directions of asymmetric causality are negative

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