Wagner Kanunu’nun BRICS Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Bazında Geçerliliğinin Sınanması

Wagner Kanunu’ndan hareketle ele alnan bu çalúmada, BRICS ülkeleri ile Türkiye’de, ekonomik büyüme ve kamu harcamalar arasndaki uzun dönemli eúbütünleúme iliúkisi ile nedensellik iliúkisinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmútr. Ekonomik büyüme ve kamu harcamalar arasndaki iliúki Wagner Kanunu’na yönelik alternatif olarak geliútirilen beú farkl model kapsamnda analiz edilmiútir. Çalúmada de÷iúkenler arasndaki iliúkinin belirlenmesi için 1990-2018 dönemi aras yllk veriler kullanlarak panel veri analizinden faydalanlmútr. Ekonomik büyüme ve kamu harcamalar arasndaki iliúkinin tespiti ve yönünün belirlenmesi için Westerlund (2007) eúbütünleúme testi ve Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) nedensellik testi uygulanmútr. Yaplan analizler sonucunda ilgili dönemde Wagner Kanunu’nun BRICS ülkeleri ve Türkiye için geçerli oldu÷u tespit edilmiútir.

Testing of the Validity of Wagner Law in the BRICS Countries andTurkey

In this study formed departing from the Wagner’s Law, in the BRICS countries and Turkey, between economic growth and public expenditure is aimed to determine the causal relationship with long-term cointegration relationship. The relationship between economic growth and public spending is analyzed under five different models developed as an alternative to the Wagner Law. In the study, panel data analysis is used by using annual data between 1990-2018 to determine the relationship between the variables. Westerlund (2007) cointegration test and Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) causality test are applied to determine the relationship and direction between economic growth and public expenditures. The results of the analysis in the relevant period have been found to be valid the Wagner’s Law for BRICS countries and Turkey.

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