Sümeyye KAYNAK, Baran KAYNAK, Hayrettin EVİRGEN

Student Consultancy Service: Prediction of Course Grades in Course Selection Phases Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Universities offer technical elective courses to allow students to improve themselves in various parts of their majors. Each semester, the students make a decision regarding these technical electives, and the most common expectations students have in this context include, getting education at a better school, getting a better job, and getting higher grades with a view to securing admission into more advanced degree programs. Electing a course on the basis of the interests and skills of the student will naturally translate into achievement. Advisors, in this context, play a major role. Yet, the substantial workload advisors have already assumed prevent them dedicating enough time for exploring the interests and skills of the students, and hence hinder the development of the required relationship between students and their advisors. This study attempts to estimate the achievement level a student intends to elect, on the basis of graduate data received from the database of students of Sakarya University, Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, and led to the development of a decision-support system. The application used ANFIS and artificial neural network methods among the artificial intelligence techniques, alongside the linear regression model as the mathematical model, whereupon the performance of the methods were compared over the application. In conclusion, it was observed that artificial intelligence techniques provided more relevant results compared to mathematical models, and that, among the artificial intelligence techniques feed forward backpropagation neural network model offered a lower standard deviation compared to ANFIS model.

Keywords:

artificial neural network adaptive network fuzzy inference system, student consultancy, course selection,

PDF

___

Aher, S., & L. M. R. J, L. (2012). A comparative study of association rule algorithms for course recommender system in e-learning. International Journal of Computer Applications, 48-52.
Babad, E. (2001). Students“course selection : differential considerations for first and last course students” course selection : Differential Considerations for First and Last Course, 42(4), 469–492. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/30069473
Babad, E., Icekson, T., & Yelinek, Y. (2008). Antecedents and correlates of course cancellation in a university “drop and add” period. Research in Higher Education, 49(4), 293–316. http://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-007-9082-3
Babad, E., & Tayeb, A. (2003). Experimental analysis of students’ course selection. The British Journal of Educational Psychology, 73(Pt 3), 373–393. http://doi.org/Doi 10.1348/000709903322275894
Babuška, R., & Verbruggen, H. (2003). Neuro-fuzzy methods for nonlinear system identification. Annual Reviews in Control, 27(1), 73–85. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1367-5788(03)00009-9
Baylari, A., & Montazer, G. a. (2009). Design a personalized e-learning system based on item response theory and artificial neural network approach. Expert Systems with Applications, 36(4), 8013–8021. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2008.10.080
Bozkir, A., Akcapinar Sezer, E., & Gök, B. (2009). Öğrenci seçme sınavında (öss) öğrenci başarımını etkileyen faktörlerin veri madenciliği yöntemleriyle tespiti. Uluslararası İleri Teknolojiler Sempozyumu (IATS’09)
Caner, M. (2009). Estimation of specific energy factor in marble cutting process using ANFIS and ANN, 221–226.
Güner, N., & Çomak, E. (2011). Mühendislik öğrencilerinin matematik i derslerindeki başarısının destek vektör makineleri kullanılarak tahmin edilmesi. Pamukkale Univ Muh Bilim Dergisi, 87-96
Heaton, J. (2008). Introduction to neural networks for C# (2 edition). Heaton Research, Incorporated.
Jang, J. (1993). ANFIS: adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 23(3), 665–685. http://doi.org/10.1109/21.256541
Jang, J. (1996). Input selection for ANFIS learning. Fuzzy Systems, Proceedings of the Fifth. 1493–1499. Retrieved from http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=552396
Kalejaye, B., Folorunso, O., & Usman, O. (2015). Predicting students’ grade scores using training functions of artificial neural. Journal of Natural Science, Engineering and Technology
Kardan, A. a., Sadeghi, H., Ghidary, S. S., & Sani, M. R. F. (2013). Prediction of student course selection in online higher education institutes using neural network. Computers & Education, 65, 1–11. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2013.01.015
Lo, J. J., Chan, Y. C., & Yeh, S. W. (2012). Designing an adaptive web-based learning system based on students’ cognitive styles identified online. Computers and Education, 58(1), 209–222. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2011.08.018
Lykourentzou, I., Giannoukos, I., Mpardis, G., Nikolopoulos, V., & Loumos, V. (2009). Early and dynamic student achievement prediction in E-learning courses using neural networks. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 60(2), 372–380. http://doi.org/10.1002/asi.20970
Lykourentzou, I., Giannoukos, I., Nikolopoulos, V., Mpardis, G., & Loumos, V. (2009). Dropout prediction in e-learning courses through the combination of machine learning techniques. Computers and Education, 53(3), 950–965. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2009.05.010
Najah, A. a., El-Shafie, A., Karim, O. a., & Jaafar, O. (2010). Water quality prediction model utilizing integrated wavelet-ANFIS model with cross-validation. Neural Computing and Applications, 21(5), 833–841. http://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-010-0486-1
Naser, S., Zaqout, I., Ghosh, M., Atallah, R., & Alajrami, E. (2015). Predicting student performance using artificial neural network: in the faculty of engineering and information technology. International Journal of Hybrid Information Technology, 221-228
Noureldin, A., El-Shafie, A., & Reda Taha, M. (2007). Optimizing neuro-fuzzy modules for data fusion of vehicular navigation systems using temporal cross-validation. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, 20(1), 49–61. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2006.03.002
Oladokun, V., Adebanjo, A., Sc, B., & Charles-Owaba, O. (2008). Predicting Students ’ academic performance using artiﬁcial neural network: a case study of an engineering course. The Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 72-79
Seber, G. A. F., & Lee Alan J. (2003). Linear regression analysis. Wiley-Interscience.
Şahin, Ç., & Arcagök, S. (2013). İlköğretim öğretmenlerinin eğitim araştırmalarına yönelik yaklaşımları. Journal of Computer and Education Research, 1(2), 1-20.
Şengür, D., & Tekin, A. (2013). Prediction of student’s grade point average by using the data mining methods. Bilişim Teknolojileri Dergisi, 6(3), 7-16.
Şentürk, M. (2016). Sosyal bilgiler dersinde işbirlikli öğrenme yöntemlerinin akademik başarı üzerindeki etkisi. Journal of Computer and Education Research, 4(8), 205-221.
Taylan, O., & Karagözoğlu, B. (2009). An adaptive neuro-fuzzy model for prediction of student’s academic performance. Computers & Industrial Engineering, , 732–741.
Werbos, P. J. (1974). Beyond regression: new tools for prediction and analysis in the behavioral sciences foundations. Retrieved from http://www.citeulike.org/group/1938/article/1055600
Yan, H., Zou, Z., & Wang, H. (2010). Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for classification of water quality status. Journal of Environmental Sciences, 22(12), 1891–1896. http://doi.org/10.1016/S1001-0742(09)60335-1
Zacharis, N. (2016). Predicting student academic performance in blended learning using artificial neural. International Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Applications (IJAIA)
Zaidah, I., & Daliela, R. (2007). Predicting students’ academic performance: comparing artiﬁcial neural network, decision tree and linear regression. 21st Annual SAS Malaysia Forum.