Phillips Eğrisi: Yarım Yüzyıldır Bitmeyen Tartışma

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, iktisatçıların makroekonomik politikanın yönetimi üzerindeki düşünüş biçimlerinin son elli yıllık dönemdeki evrimini incelemektir. Söz konusu amaç doğrultusunda Phillips Eğrisi analizinin yarım yüzyıllık serencamı mercek altına alınacaktır. Phillips Eğrisi analizinin odak noktası olarak seçilmesinin iki gerekçesi vardır. Bu seçimin birinci nedeni, makro iktisadi politikanın yönetimine ilişkin tartışma başlıklarının sadece az bir kısmında Phillips Eğrisi analizinin bir sürümüne değinmeden çalışma yapılabileceği gerçeğidir. İkinci neden ise, siyasal partilerin Phillips Eğrisi’ni uzunca bir süre ekonomik programlarını meşrulaştırma aracı olarak kullanmalarıdır. Dolayısıyla, tartışmanın Phillips Eğrisi analizi etrafında yapılması yoluyla hem iktisatçıların makro iktisadi politikanın yönetimi konusundaki görüşlerinin evrimi incelenebilecek hem de güncel iktisat politikası tartışmaları sağlıklı bir teorik çerçeveye oturtulabilecektir. Böylece, özellikle son dönemde hükümetle merkez bankası arasında yaşanan enflasyon hedefi, seçim ekonomisi ve faizleri düşürme tartışmaları daha tutatlı bir çerçevede sürdürülebilecektir. Diğer taraftan, bize göre, bu tür bir inceleme Türkçe iktisat yazınındaki konuya ilişkin boşluğun doldurulması açısından da yararlı olacaktır.

Phillips Curve: The Debate that Never Ended for Half a Century

The main objective of this study is to survey the evolution of way of thinking of economist on the management of macroeconomic policy in last fifty years. In this framework, it has been focused on the half-century long evolution of the Phillips Curve analysis. There are two reasons of choosing the Phillips Curve analysis as a focus of attention. The first reason of this choice is the fact that there can hardly be a study without reference to some version of Phillips Curve but only in a few discussion topics on the management of macroeconomic policy. The second reason is the long time exploitation of Phillips Curve by political parties as a justification device of their economic programs. Thus, by discussing the topic in the Phillips Curve framework both the evolution of the opinions of economist on management of macroeconomic policy can be surveyed and current controversies on economic policy can be put in a sound framework. In this manner, recent controversies especially between incumbent party and central bank on inflation target, election cycles and interest cut are can be better sustained in such a consistent framework. On the other hand, in my opinion, this kind of survey will also be useful for filling the gap in the Turkish economic literature on this topic.

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