Cansu ŞARKAYA İÇELLİOĞLU, Dilek TEKSÖZ AKAY

MAKROEKONOMIK GÖSTERGELER ILE İSTANBUL, ANKARA VE İZMIR KONUT FIYAT ENDEKSLERI ARASINDAKI İLIŞKININ PANEL VERI ANALIZI ILE İNCELENMESI

Ekonominin neredeyse tamamıyla yakın ilişki içerisinde olan gayrimenkul piyasasında fiyatlar, piyasa temellerinin yanı sıra spekülatif faktörlerden de etkilenmektedir. Fiyat seviyesi piyasa temelleri tarafından belirlendiğinde istikrarlı bir piyasa oluşurken, spekülatif faktörler gayrimenkul fiyatlarında hızlı yükseliş ve düşüşlere neden olabilmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir konut fiyat endeksi ile seçilmiş makro ekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’ndan toplanmıştır. Konut fiyat endeksine ait verilerin 2010 yılından önce mevcut olmaması, çalışmada karşılaşılan bir zorluk olmuştur. Temel makroekonomik göstergeler ile konut fiyat endeksi arasındaki ilişki, 2010-2017 yılları arasındaki dönemde aylık olarak Stata 13 programı kullanılarak regresyon analizi ile test edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen en önemli sonuca göre, konut kredi miktarları ve dolar kuru konut fiyat endeksini pozitif olarak etkilemektedir. Başka ülkeler için konut fiyat endeksi ile makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz eden bazı çalışmalar mevcut olsa da, Türkiye’de bu konuyu ele alan bir çalışma ile karşılaşılmamıştır.

INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND HOUSING PRICE INDEX IN ISTANBUL, ANKARA AND IZMIR WITH PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Real estate market is nearly related to entire economy. Real estate price might be affected by speculative factors besides market fundamentals. The price level determined by market fundamentals provide stability in the market, to the contrary speculative factors might cause rapid increase or decrease in the real estate price. The aim of the study is to examine the relationship between selected macroeconomic indicators and housing price index in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. The data set was collected from Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The lack of data in regard to housing price index before the year of 2010 was the problem encountered in the study. The relationship between main macroeconomics indicators and housing price index were tested with regression analysis using monthly data for the period 2010-2017 by the program of Stata 13. The most important finding of the study is the fact that the amount of housing loan and dollar exchange rate affect housing price index positively. Even though researches regarding relationship between housing price index and macroeconomic factors are available for other countries, any study that investigate similar issue in Turkey has not been encountered.

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