Sermaye Piyasası Enflasyon Teorisinin Analizi: Bankacılık Sektörü Üzerinden Türkiye Örneği

Amaç – Bu çalışma Toporowski (1999)’nin çalışmasından yola çıkarak Türk bankacılık sektörünün hisse fiyatlarının hareketi ve bu hareketin sektör karlılığı ile ilişkisi analiz edilmiştir. Yöntem – Çalışmada analiz yöntemi olarak ARDL kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, BİST mali sektörün fiyat eğilimini örmek amacıyla Trend Analizine başvurulmuştur. Bulgular – Elde edilen bulgular sermaye piyasası enflasyon teorisini destekleyecek niteliktedir. Trend Analizi bulgusu da ARDL bulgularını desteklemektedir. Tartışma – 2020 Kovid-19 salgınının oluşturduğu olumsuz ekonomik koşullara karşı Fed başta olmak üzere rezerv para birimine sahip ülkelerin uyguladıkları parasal genişleme stratejileri, mal piyasasında istenilen genişlemeyi ya da harcama akımını yaratmasa da varlık piyasalarının aşırı büyümesine yol açmıştır. Varlık piyasalarındaki bu genişleme şirketlerin faaliyetlerinden ve bilançolarından kopuk biçimde gerçekleşmiş, zarar eden firmaların bile hisse fiyatları tavan yapmıştır. Toporwski (1999) tarafından geliştirilen sermaye piyasası enflasyon teorisi bu durumu açıklamaktadır. Teoriye göre finansal piyasalara aşırı fon girişleri finansal market enflasyonuna yol açarak hisse fiyatlarındaki artışı şirketlerin bilanço koşullarından ayrıştırmıştır.

Analysis of Capital Market Theory of Inflation: The Case of Turkey through the Banking Sector

Purpose – Based on Toporowski's (1999), this paper aims to analyze the movement of share prices in the Turkish banking sector and the relationship between this movement and the profitability of the financial sector. Design/methodology/approach – ARDL was used as the analysis method in this paper. In addition, Trend Analysis was used to knit the price trend of the BIST financial sector. Findings – The findings obtained are of a nature to support the capital market inflation theory. The Trend Analysis finding also supports the ARDL findings. Discussion – The monetary expansion policies implemented by the countries with the reserve currency, especially the Fed, against the adverse economic conditions created by the 2020 Covid-19 epidemic, did not create the desired expansion or expenditure flow in the goods market, but led to the excessive growth of the asset markets. This expansion in the asset markets took place in a disconnected manner from the activities and balance sheets of the companies, and the share prices of even the companies that made losses skyrocketed. Capital market inflation theory developed by Toporwski (1999) explains this situation. According to the theory, excessive fund inflows to financial markets caused financial market inflation and separated the increase in share prices from the balance sheet conditions of the companies.

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