Politik Risk ve Ekonomik Gelişmişlik Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesinde Kapsamlı Bir Yaklaşım

Politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki literatürde sıklıkla incelenen konuların başında gelmektedir. Bu hususun incelenmesi özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik yabancı doğrudan yatırım olgusu çerçevesinde çokuluslu işletmelerin davranışlarını açıklamada kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Genellikle bu konudaki çalışmaların çoğu, oluşturdukları modellerde çeşitli göstergeleri doğrudan temsili değişken olarak kullanma yoluna gitmişlerdir. Bu makale politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesinde alternatif ve daha kapsayıcı bir yol olarak yapısal eşitlik modelinin ne şekilde uygulanabileceğini göstermeye çalışmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik modelde gizil değişkenler olarak tanımlanmıştır ve bu gizil değişkenler göstergelerden oluşan fonksiyonları temsil etmektedir. Hipotez temelli yapısal eşitlik modeli uygulanmıştır. Modelin veri seti 178 ülke için 2013-2014 dönemine ait 13 adet göstergeden oluşmaktadır. Sonuçlar (1) politik risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki anlamlı ve yüksek düzeyde pozitif ilişki olduğunu ve (2) standart katsayılar çerçevesinde politik risk için yolsuzluk kontrolünün, ekonomik gelişmişlik içinse insani gelişmişlik endeksinin en yüksek etkileşime sahip göstergeler olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bulgular, sosyal ve insan sermayesi faktörlerinin salt makroekonomik göstergelere nazaran risk ve ekonomik gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişkinin açıklanmasında daha etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

A Comprehensive Approach to Investigate the Relation between Political Risk and Economic Development

The relation between political risk and economic development is a highly-debated issue in the literature. Investigation of this phenomenon plays a critical role to explain the behavior of multinational companies in the frame of foreign direct investments especially or emerging countries. Generally the studies that focus on that subject have applied macro models via directly using of indicators. This paper tries to show an alternative method for investigation the relation between political risk and economic development in more comprehensive way by applying structural equation modeling. Accordingly, political risk and economic development are identified as latent variables in the model and these latent variables represent the functions of indicators. The hypothesized structural equation model was applied. The data set includes 13 indicators of 178 countries for 2013-2014 terms. The results show that (1) there is significant and high size positive relationship between political risk and economic development and (2) control of corruption and human development index has high-level of interaction with political risk and economic development respectively according to their standardized coefficients. These finding suggest that factors of social capital and human capital seem more efficient than pure macroeconomic indicators in order to explain the relationship between political risk and economic development.

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