Kamu Harcamalarının Artışını Açıklayan Makro ve Mikro Modellere İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme

19.yy'in sonlarından bu yana, kamu harcamalarının GSYÎH içindeki payı artmaktadır. Bu artış, sadece 20. yy'in son 10 yılında yavaşlama eğilimine girse de pek çok ülkede devam etmektedir. Bu artış sadece kamu harcamalarında niceliksel bir artış olarak görülmemekte, aynı zamanda kamu harcamaları nitelik olarak da çeşitlenmektedir. Meşhur Wagner Kanunu'nun ardından bu artışların nedenlerini açıklamayı hedefleyen çok sayıda makro ve mikro model ortaya atılmıştır. Bu modellerde kamu harcamalarında etkili olan arz ve talep yönlü faktörler esas alınmıştır. Bu modellerin özellikle test edilebilir nitelikte olanları hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde belli dönemler için test edilmiştir. Bu çalışmaların bulguları, hem mikro hem de makro modellerin hiç birinin tek başına kamu harcamalarındaki, bütüncül artış bir yana, tek tek kamu harcaması türlerindeki artışları dahi yeterince açıklamaktan yoksun olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle sosyal seçim teorisi çerçevesinde ortaya atılan mikro modellerin test sonuçları kadar politika önermeleri de ciddi tartışmalara neden olmuştur. Bu çalışmada, bu modeller arz ve talep yönlü faktörler bağlamında tartışılmış ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler perspektifinden değerlendirilmiştir.

An Assessement for the Micro and Macro Models for Explaining the Increases in Public Expenditures

Since the end of the 19th century, the share of public expenditures in GDP has been increasing, although it has slowed down for the last two decades of the following century. Apparently, the increase in public expenditures worldwide is not only in quantities but also in qualities. Following well-known Wagner's Law, plenty of macro and micro models for explaining public expenditure increases have taken place in public economics literature. Some of these models that are suitable for testing have been tested empirically both in developed and developing countries for certain time periods. However, none of these models are able to explain the causes that increase certain types of public expenditures i.e. reel or transfer expenditures, satisfactorily, let alone the factors leading to increases in public expenditures as a whole. In this respect, models within the social choice theory and their policy implications are criticized widely. In this study, these models are discussed in relation to the supply and demand-sided factors that lead to increase in public expenditures, and evaluated from the developing countries'perpective.

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