Türkiye’nin dış ticaret akımlarını belirleyen etmenler: Panel çekim modeli yaklaşımı

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin ticaret partnerleriyle arasındaki ikili ticaret akımlarının belirleyicilerini panel çekim modeli yaklaşımı kullanılarak incelemektedir. Bu amaçla, 1990-2006 dönemi itibariyle, 95 partner ülkeye ait panel veri analiz edilmektedir. Tüm model spesifikasyonlarında, Prais-Winsten regresyon analizi sonuçları, Türkiye ile ticaret partnerleri arasındaki ticaret hacminin ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklükleri ile pozitif, aralarındaki uzaklık ile ise negatif bir ilişki içinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Modellerin çoğunda, partner ülke nüfusunun ticaret üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. Gümrük Birliği kukla değişkeni, yalnızca OECD ülkelerine ilişkin modelde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Buna ek olarak, ortak bir kara veya deniz sınırına sahip olma şeklinde temsil edilen coğrafi yakınlığın ticaret akımları üzerinde belirleyici bir etkisinin olmadığı bulgulanmıştır.

This study examines the determinants of bilateral trade flows of Turkey with its trade partners based on the use of panel gravity model approach. For this purpose, panel data of 95 trade partners of Turkey are analyzed for the 1990-2006 period. In all model specifications, the results of the Prais-Winsten regression shows that the trade volume between Turkey and its trading partners is positively correlated with economic size of the countries, while distance has negative impact on trade. In most of the cases, population of the partner countries seems no meaningful effect. The Customs Union dummy variable has statistically significant and positive effect on Turkey’s trade only in the models for OECD countries. Furthermore, it is found that the geographical closeness proxied by the presence of a land or sea border has no decisive effect on trade flows.

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