Türkiye’de toplam ve sektörel enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin ekonometrik analizi

Bu çalışmada 1970-2010 dönemi yıllık verileri ile Türkiye’de reel GSYİH ile top- lam enerji tüketimi ve sektörel enerji tüketimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi test edilecektir. Çalışmada kullanılan ekonometrik yöntem serilerin durağanlıklarını önemsemeyen, birbirinden farklı düzeyde durağan olan seriler arasında da ne- densellik ilişkilerinin aranabileceğini öngören Toda ve Yamamoto (1995)’dir. Am- pirik testler neticesinde elde edilen sonuçlara göre, reel GSYİH’dan toplam ener- ji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sektörel bazda ise, GSYİH’dan ulaştırma, tarım ve çevrim santrali (CES) sektörlerinde- ki enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunurken, sanayi ve konut enerji tüketimi ile GSYİH arasında nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Reel GSYİH ile enerjinin enerji dışı amaçlarla kullanıldığı sektörler (ENRD) arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Bu bulgulardan hareketle Türkiye’de enerji tasarrufu sağlayacak politika uygulamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratmayacağı söylenebilir.

An econometric analysis of relationship Between total and sectoral energy Consumption and economic growth in turkey

This paper examines the casual relationship between aggregated and disagg- regated levels of energy consumption and real GDP for Turkey from 1970 to 2010. The relationships are measured with Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test (1995) which is applied to the VARs, irrespective of whether the variables are in- tegrated at the same level or cointegrated. At aggregated level, the results sug- gest the presence of uni-directional causal relationship from real GDP to total energy consumption. At disaggregated levels, the results indicate the presence of a uni-directional causal relationship from GDP to energy consumptions in the transport, agriculture and cycle power plant sector (CES); but no casual relati- onship between industrial and residential energy consumption. In addition, there is bi-directional casuality between real gdp and non energy used sector (ENRD). These findings imply that energy saving policies may not affect output in Turkey.

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