Türkiye'de Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Ekonomik Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki İlişkinin Nedensellik Analizi

Bu çalışmada, toplam faktör verimliliği, ekonomik büyüme ve ihracat arasındaki ilişki Türkiye ekonomisi için 1960-2014 döneminde Engle-Granger nedensellik analizi, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve hata düzeltme modeli aracılığıyla incelenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi çerçevesinde, mevcut serilerin uzun ve kısa dönem ilişkileri açısından, uzun dönemde toplam faktör verimliliği ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif etkide bulunurken ihracatı pozitif yönde etkilediği görülmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Türkiye ekonomisinin inovasyonu teşvik eden bir büyüme modeline sahip olmadığı belirlenmiştir. Arkasındaki olası nedenler kısaca şu şekilde belirtilebilir: (i) finans odaklı yatırım stratejileri, (ii) spekülatif güdülerin artışı, (iii) finansallaşma ve (iv) borçlanma artışı. Çalışmada elde edilen bir diğer önemli bulgu, ihracat odaklı üretimde kullanılan ara malların yüksek oranda ithal kökenli olmasına karşın, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ihracatın negatif etkisi görülürken toplam faktör verimliliğini pozitif yönde etkilemesidir. Son olarak, Türkiye'de ihracat ile ekonomik büyüme ve toplam faktör verimliliği arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

The Causality Analysis of the Relationship Between Total Factor Productivity, Economic Growth and Exports in Turkey

In this study, the relationship between total factor productivity, economic growth and exports was examined by way of Engle-Granger causality analysis, Johansen cointegration test and error correc- tion model for Turkish economy from 1960 to 2014. In the framework of causality analysis, it is seen that total factor productivity has a negative effect on economic growth in the long run while posi- tively affects the exports, in terms of long- and short-term relationships of the existing series. In this context, it was determined that the Turkish economy does not have an economic growth model that encourages innovation. The potential reasons behind this case can be briefly stated as follows: (i) finance-oriented investment strategies, (ii) increase in speculative motives, (iii) financialization, and (iv) increase in indebtedness. Another crucial finding in the study is that there is a negative effect of exports on economic growth while it positively affects the total factor productivity, even though intermediate goods using in export-oriented production are imported at a high rate. Finally, there is a one-way causal relationship between exports and total factor productivity and economic growth in Turkey.

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