Turizm, Ekonomik Büyüme, Ticari Açıklık ve Finansal Gelişme Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmada, ekonomik büyüme, ticari açıklık, turist sayısı ve finansal gelişme arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişki 1963-2016 dönemi esas alınarak Türkiye ekonomisi için ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı ve Varyans Ayrıştırması analizleri ile incelenmektedir. Kurulan modelde, yer alan değişkenler için yapılan ADF (Augmented Dickey Fuller), PP (Phillps- Perron) ve Ng-Perron birim kök testi sonrasında uygulanan ARDL testi sonucunda, ekonomik büyümenin uzun ve kısa dönemde dışa açıklık, turist sayısı ve finansal gelişme değişkenlerinden pozitif yönde etkilendiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Yapılan bir diğer analiz olan Varyans ayrıştırması sonuçlarına göre ise, modelde yer alan değişkenler arasında, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde en çok etkileme gücüne sahip olan değişkenin finansal gelişmişlik göstergesi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

The Relationship Between Tourism, Economic Growth, Trade Openness, And Financial Development: The Case Of Turkey

This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, trade openness, the number of tourist arrivals, and financial developments for Turkey employing ARDL bounds testing approach and variance decomposition analysis for the period of 1963-2016 both in the short and long run. ADF, PP and Ng-Perron unit root tests carried out to examine the order of integration of the variables. ARDL test results reveal that trade openness, the number of tourist arrivals, and financial development have positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short and long run growth. Moreover, the variance decomposition results indicate that financial development has the highest impact on economic growth among other variables in Turkey.

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