Convergence of Crime in Turkey: Time Series Analysis with Accounting Structural Breaks

This study examines the potential convergence in crime rates among 12 regions in Turkey forevaluating whether crime fighting socio-economic policies should be constructed at a national orregional level. Turkey’s aggregated crime data indicate that total crime per 100000 inhabitantsincreased approximately by 190% during 1990-2016. Moreover, this topic is noteworthy for Turkeyin the presence of variations of crime across regions and number of convicted prisoners due toremission of punishment or financial crisis. We employed different techniques to capture the role ofstructural shifts. The results of conventional unit root tests provide very few evidence forconvergence. This contradicts starkly with two sharp shifts results. Finally, gradual shift testing doesnot show clear-cut evidence for divergence. However, ȕ-convergence testing supports strong evidencein favor of divergence. These indicate that consideration of structural breaks are critical in terms ofpolicy implications and regional socio-economic policies should be implemented.

Türkiye'de Suç Oranlarının Yakınsaması: Yapısal Kırılmaları Dikkate Alan Zaman Serisi Analizi

Bu çalışma, suçla mücadeleye dair sosyo-ekonomik politikaların ulusal mı yoksa bölgesel düzeyde mi oluşturulması gerektiğini belirlemek amacıyla Türkiye'deki 12 bölgede suç oranlarının yakınsamasını incelemektedir. Suç verileri, her 100000 kişi için toplam suçun 1990-2016 yılları arasında yaklaşık %190 oranında arttığını göstermektedir. Suç oranlarının bölgesel farklılıkları ve ceza affı ve finansal kriz yıllarında mahkûmların sayısında önemli değişiklikler yaşanması politika yapıcılar açısından konuyu önemli kılmaktadır. Çalışmada yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan ve almayan yöntemler kullanılarak önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak kırılmaların varlığının sonuçlar üzerindeki etkisi tartışılacaktır. Geleneksel birim kök testlerinin sonuçları suç oranlarının bölgeler arasında daha çok ıraksadığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, iki keskin kırılmaya izin veren birim kök testi sonuçlarıyla çelişmektedir. Fourier birim kök test sonuçları ise, suç oranlarının bölgeler arasında ıraksadığını göstermektedir. Dahası, P-yakınsama testi, bölgeler arası ıraksama lehine güçlü kanıtlar sunarken, suça yönelik bölgesel sosyo-ekonomik politikaların gerekliliğini ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Ayrıca sonuçlar, yapısal kırılmaların dikkate alınmasının ve modellenme biçiminin politika çıkarımı açısından önemini göstermektedir.

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