TÜRK SAĞLIK SİSTEMİNİN MALİ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ ÜZERİNE ANALİZ

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'de Covid-19 salgını öncesinde ve sonrasında sağlık sisteminin mali sürdürülebilirliği analiz edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Aylık verilerle analizinin yapıldığı çalışmanın veri seti, 2006:1- 2020:12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Türkiye’de sağlık sisteminin mali sürdürülebilirliği ARIMA forecasting yöntemi ile tahmin edilmektedir. Çalışma sonuçları, Türkiye'nin sağlık sisteminin mali sürdürülebilirliği sağladığını göstermektedir. Ancak, dışsal bir şok durumunda sağlık sisteminin mali sürdürülebilirliğinin etkileneceği iddia edilebilir. Bu kapsamda, beklenmedik durumlara karşılık Türkiye’nin, sağlık programları için alternatif senaryolar oluşturması gerekmektedir.

AN ANALYSIS ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY OF TURKISH HEALTH SYSTEM

This study empirically analyzes the fiscal sustainability of health system before and after the Covid19 pandemic in Turkey. The data set of the study, through which the analysis is carried out with monthly data, covers the period of 2006: 1-2020: 12. Fiscal sustainability of Turkish health system is analyzed with the ARIMA forecasting method. The results of the study show that Turkish health system provides fiscal sustainability. However, it can be argued that the fiscal sustainability of the health system will be affected in the event of an external shock. In this context, Turkey should create alternative scenarios for health programs in response to unexpected situations.

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