Burak MAT, Melike TEKİNDAL, Mustafa Bahadır ÇEVRİMLİ, Mustafa Agah TEKİNDAL, Aynur YONAR, Harun YONAR, Zekeriya Safa İNANÇ, Hasan ALKAN

Analyzing COVID-19 outbreak for Turkey and Eight Country with Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and SEIR Models

.Aim: This study is conducted to inform communities and governments aboutthe spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected countries: Turkey, Germany,the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, and Japan.Materials and Methods: For this purpose, the numbers of the COVID-19 epidemic after the 100th case up to 7/19/2020 for selected countries have beenestimated by using Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)and SEIR Models.Results: In the evaluations of the ARDL and SEIR models established, it is determined that France and Italy have high pandemic growth rates; while Canada has a low pandemic growth rate. It has also observed that the turningpoint of the pandemic occurred on the 72nd day. If there is no change in theoutbreak and governments continue with the same strategies, it is predictedthat the epidemic will begin again in early October 2020 (from September 21to November 10) and will be effective for an average of 155 days (between 145and 168 days). It is seen that the observed and predicted daily cumulative newcases are consistent.Conclusion: As a result, it can be said that the models used in this study wellcharacterized outbreak of the COVID-19 in the eight major Western countriesand Turkey

Türkiye ve Sekiz Ülke (G8) için COVID-19 salgınının Eğri Tahmini Modelleri, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Doğrusal Üstel Düzeltme Yöntemi, Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) ve SEIR Modelleri ile analizi

Amaç: Bu çalışma, COVID-19 salgınının Türkiye, Almanya, Birleşik Krallık, Fransa, İtalya, Rusya, Kanada ve Japonya gibi belirli ülkelerde yayılması konusunda toplulukları ve hükümetleri bilgilendirmek için yapılmıştır. Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu amaçla, seçilen ülkeler için 100. vakadan sonra 19.07.2020'ye kadar olan COVID-19 salgını sayıları Eğri Tahmin Modelleri, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Doğrusal Üstel Düzeltme Yöntemi, Otoregresif Dağılımlı Lag (ARDL) ve SEIR Modelleri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular: Oluşturulan ARDL ve SEIR modellerinin değerlendirmelerinde, Fransa ve İtalya'nın pandemik büyüme oranlarının yüksek olduğu; Kanada düşük pandemik büyüme oranına sahipken. Ayrıca pandeminin dönüm noktasının 72. günde gerçekleştiğini gözlemledi. Salgında bir değişiklik olmazsa ve hükümetler aynı stratejilerle devam ederse, salgının 2020 Ekim ayı başlarında (21 Eylül - 10 Kasım arası) yeniden başlayacağı ve ortalama 155 gün (145-168 gün arası) etkili olacağı tahmin ediliyor. Öneri: Gözlemlenen ve tahmin edilen günlük kümülatif yeni vakaların tutarlı olduğu görülmektedir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışmada kullanılan modellerin G8 ülkesinde ve Türkiye'de COVID-19 salgınını iyi karakterize ettiği söylenebilir

PDF

___

Akın AC, Arıkan MS, Çevrimli MB, Tekindal MA, 2020a. Assessment of the effect of beef and mutton meat prices on chicken meat prices in Turkey using different regression models and the decision tree algorithm. Kafkas Univ Vet Fak Derg, 26(1), 47-52.
Akın AC, Tekindal MA, Arıkan MS, Çevrimli MB, 2020b. Modelling of the milk supplied to the industry in Turkey through Box-Jenkins and Winters' Exponential Smoothing methods. Veteriner Hekimler Dernegi Dergisi, 91(1), 40-51.
Arıkan MS, Çevrimli MB, Mat B, Tekindal MA, 2018. Price forecast for farmed and captured trout using Box-Jenkins Method and 2009-2017 Prices. Academic Studies in Health Sciences, Gece Publishing, 79-90.
Ateş C, 2020. Forecasting for the number of individuals per dentist in Turkey; Comparison of Box-Jenkins and Brown Exponential Smoothing Estimation Methods. Eastern Journal of Medicine, 25(1), 132-139.
BenvenutoD, Giovanetti M, VassalloL, Angeletti S, et al., 2020. Application of the ARIMA model on the COVID-2019 epidemic dataset. Data in brief, 105340.
Brockwell PJ, Davis RA, Calder MV (2002). Introduction to time series and forecasting. Springer, New York, pp. 3118- 3121
Çevrimli MB, Arıkan M S, Tekindal MA, 2020. Honey price estimation for the future in Turkey; example of 2019-2020. Ankara Üniversitesi Veteriner Fakültesi Dergisi, 67(2), 143-152.
Diaz P, Constantine P, Kalmbach K, Jones E, et al., 2018. A modified SEIR model for the spread of Ebola in Western Africa and metrics for resource allocation. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 324, 141-155.
Fanelli D, Piazza F, 2020. Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 134, 109761.
Farebrother R, 1976. Further results on the mean square error of ridge regression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 38(3), 248-250.
Griffiths WE, Hill RC, Lim GC, 2008. Using EViews: For Principles of Econometrics.
Gujarati DN, Porter DC, 2003. Basic econometrics (ed.). Singapore: McGrew Hill Book Co.
Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, et al., 2020. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The lancet, 395(10223), 497-506.
JHU, 2020. Johns Hopkins University Retrieved. https:// github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19. Accessed at 24.08.2020.
Kaymaz Ö, 2018. Forecasting of commercial egg production in Turkey with Box-Jenkins and Winter's Exponential Smoothing Methods. Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences, 34(3), 142-149.
Kermack WO, McKendrick AG, 1927. A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the royal society of london. Series A, Containing papers of a mathematical and physical character, 115(772), 700-721.
Legrand J, Grais RF, Boelle PY, Valleron AJ, et al., 2007. Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics. Epidemiology & Infection, 135(4), 610-621.
Narayan S, Narayan PK, 2004. Determinants of demand for Fiji's exports: an empirical investigation. The Developing Economies, 42(1), 95-112.
Özen D, Tekindal MA, Çevrimli MB, 2019. Modeling and Forecasting Meat Consumption per Capita in Turkey. Erciyes Üniv Vet Fak Dergisi, 16(2): 122-129.
Öztemiz S, Tekindal MA, 2020. Estimation of GDP from public library usage: Turkey sample, Library Management, 41, 153-171.
Palamalai S, Kalaivani M, 2013. Exchange rate volatility and export growth in India: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Decision Science Letters, 2(3), 191-202.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, 1998. An autoregressive distributed-lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Econometric Society Monographs, 31, 371-413.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ, 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
Robinson PM, 1988. Root-N-consistent semiparametric regression. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 931-954.
Roda WC, Varughese MB, Han D, Li MY, 2020. Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic? Infectious Disease Modelling.
Tekindal M, Attepe Özden S, 2019. Modelling of time series and evaluation of forecasts: juveniles received into security unit case of Turkey. New Horizons in Social, Human and Administrative Sciences Gece Kitaplığı, 237-269.
Tekindal MA, Güllü Ö, Yazıcı AC, Yavuz Y, 2016. The modelling of Time-Series and the evaluation of forecasts for the future: The Case Of The Number of Persons Per Physician in Turkey Between 1928 and 2010. Biomedical Research, 27(3), 965-971.
WHO, 2020. World Health Organization Retrieved. https:// www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-generals-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19. Accessed at 11.03.2020
Yenice S, Tekindal MA, 2015. Forecasting the stock ındexes of fragile five countries through Box-Jenkins Methods, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 6,(8) , 180-191.
Yonar H, Yonar A., Tekindal MA, Tekindal M, 2020. Modeling and Forecasting for the number of cases of the COVID-19 pandemic with the Curve Estimation Models, the BoxJenkins and Exponential Smoothing Methods. EJMO, 4(2), 160-165.
Zhang S, Diao M, Yu W, Pei L, et al., 2020. Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis. International journal of infectious diseases, 93, 201-204.
Zhou X, Cui J, 2011. Analysis of stability and bifurcation for an SEIR epidemic model with saturated recovery rate. Communications in nonlinear science and numerical simulation, 16(11), 4438-4450.