MENA ÜLKELERİNDE ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ KARŞILIKLI İLİŞKİNİN ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada 9 MENA ülkesinde 1978-2009 yılları arasında elektrik tüketimi ile GSYH arasında ilişki olup olmadığı analiz edilmiştir. İlk olarak elektrik tüketimi ve GSYH serilerinde birim kök olup olmadığı analiz edilmiştir. Daha sonra değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişki olup olmadığını analiz etmek için eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme testleri sonucunda değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra elektrik tüketiminin bağımlı değişken olduğu model Dinamik EKK, Tam düzenlenmiş EKK, Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi ve Dinamik Sabit Etkiler Tahmincisi yöntemleriyle tahmin edilmiştir. Son olarak değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koyabilmek için kullanılan panel VECM modeli sonucunda hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde elektrik tüketimiyle GSYH arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Elektrik Tüketimi, GSYH, MENA, DOLS, FMOLS, MGE, Panel VECM.

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In this study, nine MENA countries between the years of 1978-2009 were analyzed whether there is a relationship between electricity consumption and GDP. First of all it was analyzed if electricity consumption and GDP series included unit root. Then, in order to analyze whether the long-run relationship between the variables cointegration tests were used. As a result of cointegration tests it was determined there was cointegration relationship between variables. After that, model electricity consumption as the dependent variable were estimated by Dynamic OLS, Fully Modified OLS, Average Group and Dynamic Fixed Effects Estimator methods. Finally, as a result of panel VECM used to elucidate the causal relationship between the variables, it was concluded that there were bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and GDP both in the short term and long-term

Keywords:

Electricity Consumption, GDP, MENA, DOLS, FMOLS, MGE, Panel VECM,

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