Kaldor Yasalarının Türkiye için Testi: Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yöntemleri ile Yeni Bulgular

Nikolas Kaldor’un iktisat teorisine temel katkısı sanayiye dayalı büyüme modelidir. Kaldor yasaları sanayi sektörü, ekonomik büyüme ve işgücü verimliliği arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye için 1980-2014 döneminde Kaldor’un birinci ve ikinci (Kaldor-Verdoorn) yasasının geçerliliğini, simetrik; Toda ve Yamamoto (1995), Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) ve asimetrik; Hatemi-J (2012) nedensellik yöntemleri kullanarak test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Simetrik nedensellik testlerinin sonuçlarına göre Kaldor’un birinci ve ikinci yasası Türkiye için geçerlidir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi sanayi sektöründe yaratılan katma değerin hem ekonomik büyüme hem de sanayi sektöründeki işgücü verimliliği üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Asimetrik nedensellik testinin bulguları ise Kaldor’un ilk yasasının geçerli olduğunu ancak ikinci yasasının geçerli olmadığını belirtmektedir. Bu bulgular sanayi sektöründeki gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi desteklediğini göstermektedir.

Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods

Nicholas Kaldor’s main contribution to economic theory was his work on industry-based growth model. Kaldor’s laws examine the relationship between the industrial sector, economic growth and labor productivity. This paper aims to test the validity of Kaldor’s first and second (Kaldor-Verdoorn’s) law using symmetric Toda and Yamamoto (1995); Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and asymmetric Hatemi-J (2012) causality methods for Turkey covering the period of 1980-2014. According to the results of the symmetric causality tests, Kaldor’s first and second law are valid for Turkey. Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis shows that industry value added have a positive effect on both economic growth and labor productivity in the industrial sector. The asymmetric causality test results indicate that Kaldor’s first law holds in Turkey; however, Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law is invalid. These results show that development in the industrial sector promotes economic growth.

Keywords:

Kaldor’s Laws, Industrialization Productivity, Asymmetric Causality Test,

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