FATİH CEYLAN, RAMAZAN EKİNCİ, OSMAN TÜZÜN, HAKAN KAHYAOĞLU

KRİPTO PARA PİYASASINDA BALONLARIN TESPİTİ: BITCOIN VE ETHEREUM ÖRNEĞİ

Başta Bitcoin olmak üzere kripto paralar son dönemde çok sık kullanılmaya başlamıştır. “Para birimi” olarak ve “Değer birikim aracı” olarak kabul görmeye başlayan kripto paraların fiyat hareketlerinin analiz edilmesi ihtiyacı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu piyasaların büyümesi ve küresel entegrasyonu ile birlikte fiyatlarda meydana gelen önemli değişimlerin temelinde spekülatif balonların olup olmadığı finansal istikrar konusunda açıklık ve güvence açısından önem arz etmektedir. Ayrıca kripto para piyasasında meydana gelen spekülatif hareketler piyasa katılımcılarının sürü psikolojisiyle hareket edip etmedikleri sorusunu ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu nedenle çalışmada Bitcoin ve Etherium para birimlerinde spekülatif balonların varlığı Philips vd. (2015) tarafından geliştirilen yöntem ile tespit edilmiş ve ne zaman oluştukları tahminlenmiştir. Piyasada balonların olması ve bu balonların süre olarak varlığı sürü psikolojisinin olduğu yönünde bilgi sağlarken, bu piyasada dengeleyici bir spekülasyonun olmadığı yönünde de bir bilgidir. Elde edilen bulgular doğrultusunda Bitcoin ve Etherium kripto para birimlerinde çok sayıda baloncuk olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Özellikle 2017-2018 yılları arasında büyük baloncukların ortaya çıkması bu para birimlerinin spekülatif hareketlere karşı eğilimli olduğunu gösterilmiştir.

DETERMINATION OF BUBBLES IN CRYPTOCURRENCIES MARKET: BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have been used very often recently. The need for analyzing the price movements of the cryptocurrencies, which are accepted as “a currency” and “a store of value”, has emerged. With the growth and global integration of these markets, whether there are speculative bubbles on the basis of significant changes in prices is important in terms of openness and security in respect of financial stability. In addition, speculative movements in the cryptocurrencies market raise the question of whether market participants act with herd mentality. For this reason, in the study, the presence of speculative bubbles in Bitcoin and Etherium is analyzed by using Philips et al. (2015) method and estimated when they were formed. While the presence of bubbles in the cryptocurrencies market and the existence of these bubbles as a duration of herd mentality, it is also known that there is no balancing speculation in this market. According to the findings, a large number of bubbles were found in the Bitcoin and Etherium cryptocurrencies. The emergence of large bubbles, especially between the years 2017-2018, has shown that these cryptocurrencies are prone to speculative movements.

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