TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM, İHRACAT VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: MAKİ EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME VE BOOTSTRAP NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 1963-2015 döneminde turizm gelirleri ve ihracatın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla, serilerin durağanlıkları geleneksel birim kök testleri ve yapısal kırılmaya izin veren birim kök testleri ile sınanmıştır. Serilerin durağanlıkları I(1) olarak tahmin edilmesinden sonra seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi çoklu yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Maki (2012) Eşbütünleşme Testi kullanılarak tespit edilmiştir. Serilerin eşbütünleşik olarak tahmin edilmesi sonrasında FMOLS Eşbütünleşme Katsayı Tahmincisi kullanılarak eşbütünleşme katsayıları tahmin edilmiştir. Son olarak Hacker ve Hatemi (2006) Bootstrap Nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, serilerin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket edeceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Nedensellik analizine göre, ihracattan ekonomik büyümeye doğru nedensellik ilişkisi, ihracattan turizm gelirlerine doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulgusuna rastlanılmamıştır.

TOURISM, EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN TURKEY: MAKI COİNTEGRATION AND BOOTSTRAP CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

In this study, explores the effects of tourism income and exports on Turkey’s economic growth. It employs annual data from 1963 to 2015. For this purpose, the stationarity of the series was tested with traditional unit root tests and unit root tests allowing structural breaks. After estimating the stationeries as I (1), the cointegration relationship between the series was determined using the Maki (2012) Cointegration Test, which allowed multiple structural breaks. Acording to estimating the cointegrated series FMOLS cointegration coefficient estimator using coefficients are estimated. Finally Hacker and Hatemi (2006) Bootstrap Causation Analysis was performed. According to the findings, the result is that the series will move together in the long term. So far as the findings, the result is that the series will move together in the long term. According to the analysis of causality, causality of export to economic growth and causality of export to tourism income was determined. There was no causal relationship between tourism incomes and economic growth.

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