Türkiye’de Banka Kredileri ve Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi

Çalışmada, Türkiye'de banka kredileri ve konjonktür dalgalanmaları arasındaki ilişki araştırılmaktadır. 1987:01-2013:03 dönemini kapsayan çeyrek veriler ile eşbütünleşme analizi ve vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmaktadır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonuçları reel banka kredileri ile reel GSYH, enflasyon ve geri ödenmeyen krediler arasında uzun dönem istikrarlı bir denge ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Para arzı, kredi riski ve 1994, 2001 ile 2008 kriz değişkenlerinin reel banka kredileri üzerinde kısa dönemli etkileri bulunmaktadır. 2001 krizinin banka kredileri üzerinde daha uzun dönemli etkisinin olduğu tespit edilmektedir

Analysis of Bank Lending and Business Cycles in Turkey

This study explores the relationships between bank lending and the business cycle in Turkey. We use a cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1987:012013:03 period. The results of cointegration analysis indicate that there is a single stable long-run equilibrium relationship between real bank loans and real GDP, inflation and credit risk. Money supply, credit risk, 1994, 2001 and 2008 crisis are found to have influence on real bank loans in short-run. The 2001 crises also affects real bank loans in long-run

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