AVRUPA'DA DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR, TURİZM VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ DİNAMIK BAĞLANTILAR

Bu belge, 19 Orta ve Doğu Avrupa ülkesini yıllık veriler kullanılarak 1995 ile 2017 dönemi için doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, turizm gelirleri, dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisi araştırmıştır. Değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönem nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre; turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme arasında ve dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca ekonomik büyüme doğrudan yabancı yatırımların nedenselidir. Uzun dönem nedensellik analiziz sonucuna göre ekonomik büyüme ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar arasında çift yönlü nedensellik vardır. elde edilen bulgulara göre, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, turizm gelirleri ve dışa açıklık ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediğinden, politika yapıcıların alacakları kararlarda bunlara dikkat etmesi gerekmektedir. Politika yapıcıların ekonomik büyümeyi hızlandırabilmesi için daha fazla doğrudan yabancı yatırımların ülkeye gelmesi için teşvikte bulunması gerekmektedir. Yatırımların, politik ve ekonomik istikrarı olan ülkelere kayacağı varsayıldığından, politika yapıcıların bu olguyu göz ardı etmemesi gerekmektedir. Yabancı yatırımları ülkeye çekme politikalarının devreye girerek, ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağlanması ve ekonomik değişkenliğin en aza indirgenmesi hedeflenmelidir. Turizme yapılacak yatırımların dikkatli seçilmesi, gelecek turist sayısını doğrudan etkileyecektir. Bu yüzden politika yapıcıların yatırımcılar ile birlikte çalışması gereklidir.

THE DYNAMIC LINKS BETWEEN, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TOURISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN

This document explores the cointegration and causality relationship between foreign direct investments, tourism revenues, trade openness and economic growth in 19 Central and Eastern European countries for the period of 1995 - 2017, using annual data. A cointegration relationship was found between the variables. Based on the results of the short-term causality analysis, a two-way causality between tourism revenues and economic growth, and between trade openness and economic growth were identified. Moreover, economic growth was the causality of foreign direct investments. According to the long-term causality analysis, there is a two-way causality between economic growth and foreign direct investments. Since the findings indicate that direct foreign investments, tourism revenues and trade openness affect economic growth positively, policy makers need to pay attention to this in their decisions. Policy makers need to encourage more foreign direct investments to come into the country to accelerate economic growth. Since it is assumed that investments will flow to countries with political and economic stability, policy makers should not ignore this issue. The objective should be to provide contributions to economic growth and minimize economic volatility by introducing policies to attract foreign investments to the country. The careful selection of the investments in tourism will directly affect the number of tourists to come. That is why policy makers should work with investors.

PDF

___

ABBES, S. M., Mostéfa, B., Seghir, G., & Zakarya, G. Y. (2015). Causal interactions between FDI, and economic growth: evidence from dynamic panel co- integration. Procedia economics and finance, 23: 276-290.
ADEEL-Farooq, R. M., Abu Bakar, N. A., & Raji, J. O. (2017). Trade openness, financial liberalization and economic growth: The case of Pakistan and India. South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 6(3): 229-246.
AGRAWAL, G. (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in BRICS economies: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3(4): 421-424.
AHMAD, N., Hdia, M., Li, H. Z., Wang, J., & Tian, X. L. (2018). Foreign Investment, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in China: Does Foreign Investment Crowd in or Crowd out Domestic Investment?. Economics Bulletin, 38(3): 1279-1291.
ALAM, M. S., Raza, S. A., Shahbaz, M., & Abbas, Q. (2016). Accounting for contribution of trade openness and foreign direct investment in life expectancy: The long-run and short-run analysis in Pakistan. Social Indicators Research, 129(3): 1155-1170.
ALI, W., & Abdullah, A. (2015). The Impact of Trade Openness on the Economic Growth of Pakistan: 1980-2010. Global Business & Management Research, 7(2), 120-129.
BAI, J., & Ng, S. (2004). A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4): 1127-1177.
BALAGUER, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied economics, 34(7): 877-884.
BASSIL, C., Hamadeh, M., & Samara, N. (2015). The tourism led growth hypothesis: the Lebanese case. Tourism Review, 70(1): 43-55.
BERMEJO Carbonell, J., & Werner, R. A. (2018). Does Foreign Direct Investment Generate Economic Growth? A New Empirical Approach Applied to Spain. Economic Geography: 1-32.
BLONIGEN, B. A. (2005). A review of the empirical literature on FDI determinants. Atlantic Economic Journal, 33(4): 383-403.
BORENSZTEIN, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J. W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth? 1. Journal of international Economics, 45(1): 115-135.
BREUSCH, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1): 239-253.
COPELAND, B. R. (1991). Tourism, welfare and de-industrialization in a small open economy. Economica: 515-529.
CORRIE, K., Stoeckl, N., & Chaiechi, T. (2013). Tourism and economic growth in Australia: an empirical investigation of causal links. Tourism Economics, 19(6): 1317- 1344.
DRITSAKIS, N., & Stamatiou, P. (2017). Foreign Direct Investments, Exports, Unemployment and Economic Growth in the New EU Members-A Panel Data Approach. Economia Internazionale/International Economics, 70(4): 443-468.
ENGLE, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society: 251-276.
GHALI, M. A. (1976). Tourism and economic growth: An empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24(3): 527-538.
HASSEN, S., Anis, O., Taha, Z., & Yosra, S. (2018). Trade openness and economic growth: The case of Tunisia. International Journal of Advances in Management and Economics, 2(2): 24–32.
HATEMI-J, A. (2016). On the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the UAE: a bootstrap approach with leveraged adjustments. Applied Economics Letters, 23(6): 424-427.
HOSSAIN, M. S. (2011). Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries. Energy Policy, 39(11): 6991-6999.
HUSEIN, J., & Kara, S. M. (2011). Research note: Re-examining the tourism-led growth hypothesis for Turkey. Tourism Economics, 17(4): 917-924.
HUSSAIN, M. E., & Haque, M. (2016). Foreign direct investment, trade, and economic growth: An empirical analysis of Bangladesh. Economies, 4(2), 7.
IAMSIRAROJ, S. (2016). The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus. International Review of Economics & Finance, 42: 116-133.
ISIK, C. (2012). The USA’s international travel demand and economic growth in Turkey: A causality analysis:(1990–2008). Tourismos: An International Multidisciplinary Journal of Tourism, 7(1): 235-252.
KAO, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of econometrics, 90(1): 1-44.
KEHO, Y. (2017). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1): 1332820.
KÓNYA, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6): 978-992.
LANZA, A., & Pigliaru, F. (1995). Specialization in tourism: the case of a small open economy. Sustainable tourism development: 91-103.
LIARGOVAS, P. G., & Skandalis, K. S. (2012). Foreign direct investment and trade openness: The case of developing economies. Social indicators research, 106(2): 323-331.
MÉRIDA, A., & Golpe, A. A. (2016). Tourism led growth revisited for Spain: Causality, business cycles and structural breaks. International Journal of Tourism Research, 18(1): 39-51.
MOHAMED, M. R., Singh, K. S. J., & Liew, C. Y. (2017). Impact of foreign direct investment & domestic investment on economic growth of Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Economic Studies, 50(1): 21-35.
NAZLIOGLU, S., & Soytas, U. (2012). Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Energy Economics, 34(4): 1098- 1104.
OHLAN, R. (2015). The impact of population density, energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness on CO 2 emissions in India. Natural Hazards, 79(2): 1409- 1428.
OMISAKIN, O., Adeniyi, O., & Omojolaibi, A. (2009). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economic Theory, 3(2): 13-18.
PAVLIC, I., Svilokos, T., & Tolic, M. S. (2015). Tourism, real effective exchange rate and economic growth: Empirical evidence for Croatia. International Journal of Tourism Research, 17(3): 282-291.
PEDRONI, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 61(S1): 653- 670.
PEDRONI, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric theory, 20(3): 597-625.
PESARAN, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics no. 435. University of Cambridge.
PESARAN, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1): 50-93.
ROUDI, S., Arasli, H., & Akadiri, S. S. (2018). New insights into an old issue–examining the influence of tourism on economic growth: evidence from selected small island developing states. Current Issues in Tourism: 1-21.
SAKYI, D., Commodore, R., & Opoku, E. E. O. (2015). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and economic growth in Ghana: An empirical investigation. Journal of African Business, 16(1-2): 1-15.
SALAHUDDIN, M., Alam, K., Ozturk, I., & Sohag, K. (2018). The effects of electricity consumption, economic growth, financial development and foreign direct investment on CO2 emissions in Kuwait. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 81: 2002- 2010.
SEBRI, M., & Ben-Salha, O. (2014). On the causal dynamics between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and trade openness: Fresh evidence from BRICS countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 39: 14-23.
SEYOUM, M., Wu, R., & Lin, J. (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic growth: The case of developing African economies. Social Indicators Research, 122(1): 45-64.
SHAHBAZ, M., Ferrer, R., Shahzad, S. J. H., & Haouas, I. (2018). Is the tourism– economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations. Applied Economics, 50(24): 2677-2697.
SOLARIN, S. A., & Shahbaz, M. (2015). Natural gas consumption and economic growth: the role of foreign direct investment, capital formation and trade openness in Malaysia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42: 835-845.
SORGE, L., & Neumann, A. (2017). The nexus of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and trade-openness in WTO countries. DIW Discussion Papers, No. 1699.
SU, Y., & Liu, Z. (2016). The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities. China Economic Review, 37: 97- 109.
SWAMY, P. A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 311-323.
TANG, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2015). Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?. Tourism management, 46: 158-163.
TANG, V. T., Tregenna, F., & Dikgang, J. (2019). Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Mauritius. In Development and Sustainable Growth of Mauritius (pp. 69- 104). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
TATOĞLU, F. Y. (2013). İleri panel veri analizi: stata uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları: İstanbul.
TRANG, N. H. M., Duc, N. H. C., & Dung, N. T. (2014). Research note: Empirical assessment of the tourism-led growth hypothesis—the case of Vietnam. Tourism Economics, 20(4): 885-892.
WESTERLUND, J., & Edgerton, D. L. (2007). A panel bootstrap cointegration test. Economics Letters, 97(3): 185-190.
WESTERLUND, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2): 193-233.
World Investment Report. (2011). Investment and New Industrial Policies, UNCTAD, United Nations Publication. https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2018_en.pdf.
YANIKKAYA, H. (2003). Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Journal of Development economics, 72(1): 57-89.