Türkiye'de Nüfus Artışının Ekonomik Büyümeyle İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Nüfus artışıyla ekonomik büyüme arasındaki olası bir çift yönlü ilişki eskiden beri araştırmacıların ilgisini çekmiştir. Ancak Türkiye'deki durumun ampirik olarak pek incelendigi söylenemez. Bu çalışma koentegrasyon ve vektör hata düzeltme modeli (vector error correction model) yöntemlerini kullanarak nüfus ile ekonomik gelişme arasında uzun dönemli bir denge veya kısa dönemli bir uyum ilişkisinin olup olmadıgını analiz etmektedir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar nüfusun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin kısa dönemli olduğunu, buna karşılık ekonomik büyümeden nüfusa dogru işleyen uzun dönemli bir denge ilişkisinin bulundugunu ortaya koymaktadır. Buna gore Türkiye'de nüfus artışı içseldir (endogenous) ve uygulanması muhtemel politikaların da bu doğrultuda olması uygun gözükmektedir.

Population and Economic Growth Relationship in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis

The possible relationship between population growth and econoınic growth has always taken considerable attention from researchers. Nevertheless, there is a lack of applied research in Turkey in this subject. This paper uses cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) to explore long and short mn properties of the relationship. Estimated results reveal that the impact of the population growth on econoınic growth adjusts itself in the same period. However, in the long mn econoınic growth forces population growth down to return its equilibrium value, implying that population growth is endogenous in Turkey. Considering this, domestic population policies may become more effective when theyare applied accordingly.

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