Asimetrik iktisadi dalgalanmalar: Teori ve uygulama

Bu çalışmanın amacı, asimetrik iktisadi dalgalanmalar kavramını ve çeşitlerini irdelemek, söz konusu asimetri çeşitlerinin varlığının 1960-2006 dönemi Türkiye ekonomisi için sınamaktır. Bu amaçla önce reel GSMH değişkeninin konjonktür bileşeni, Hodrick- Prescott filtresi yardımıyla elde edilmiş ve daha sonra elde edilen konjonktür bileşeninin nasıl bir asimetrik hareket izlediğini test etmek amacıyla, eğiklik testine dayanan derinlik ve diklik istatistikleri kullanılmıştır. Söz konusu istatistiklerin anlamlılıkları ise Newey- West (1987) tahmin yöntemi ile sınanmıştır.

Asymmetric business cycle : Theory and application

The purpose of this study is to explain the concept and the kind of asymmetric business cycle and to examine the kind of the asymmetry for Turkish economy at the period of 1960-2006. For this purpose, firstly the cycle component of real GNP has been obtained by using Hodrick-Presscot Filter and then deepness and steepness statistics based on skewness test have been used to test how the cycle component follows asymmetric movement. The significances of these statistics have been investigated by using Newey-West (1987) method.

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