Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi Oylarının Birikimli Düzey Analizi ve Türkiye'de Merkez Solun Seçim Coğrafyasının İncelemesi

Özet: 2002 genel seçimleri, mevcut partilerin tümünün büyük ölçüde zayıflamasına yol açmıştır ve Türk politikası için bir dönüm noktası olma niteliği kazanmıştır. Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi iktidara geldikten sonra Türkiye’yi yeni bir dönüşüm sürecine sok- muştur. Terazinin diğer kefesinde ise seçimlerden nispeten başarıyla çıkan tek muhale- fet partisi vardır: CHP. İzleyen on yıl içinde partiler arası güç dengesinde bir değişim gerçekleşmemiştir. Bu makale, 1950’lerden bu yana CHP’nin seçim ortamını birikimli düzeyde (aggregate level) analiz ederek, partinin ve merkez solun politik dinamiklerini incelemekte ve bu yolla bir çok bilimsel yayında ortaya atılmış savların geçerliliğini is- tatistiksel regresyon analizleriyle test etmektedir. Ayrıca makalede, günümüzde geçerli olan egemen iki partili modelin yeniden tasarımlanmasına ilişkin sorulara yanıtlar aranmaktadır.

The Cumulative Level Analysis of the Votes of the Republican People's Party and the Review of the Electoral Geography of the Central-Left in Turkey Abstract: The 2002 general election marked a turning point in Turkish politics, result-

Abstract: The 2002 general election marked a turning point in Turkish politics, result- ing in a massive overhaul of the party system, which weakened all existing parties tre- mendously. In this context, the newly formed AKP rose to power, launching Turkey into a new era of transformation. On the other end of the scale was the only opposition party that emerged rather successfully from the election: the CHP. Throughout the decade that followed, the balance of power did not alter. This article aims to analyze the politi- cal dynamics that surround the CHP by constructing an aggregate level analysis of its electoral environment since the 1950s in order to answer some of the questions relating to the redesign of the staunch dominant two-party model that currently prevails.

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