KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNDE CO2 EMİSYONU VE GSYİH İLİŞKİSİ: PANELBOOTSTRAP NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Küresel ısınma ve iklim değişikliği son yıllarda üzerinde çok tartışılan çevresel problemlerin başında gelmektedir. Bu önemli çevresel sorununun temel nedeni insan kaynaklı seragazı emisyonlarıdır. Seragazları içinde en büyük payı ise karbondioksit emisyonu almaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışmanın amacı, Kırılgan Beşli ülkelerinde (Brezilya, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Türkiye) karbondioksit emisyonu ile gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektir. Çalışmanın dönemi 1970-2016 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri incelemek için Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Brezilya ve Endonezya’da kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan kişi başına karbondioksit emisyonuna doğru, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’de ise kişi başına karbondioksit emisyonundan kişi başına gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmaktadır. Hindistan’da ise değişkenler arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmektedir.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CO2 EMISSIONS AND GDP IN FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES: PANEL BOOTSTRAP CAUSALITY ANALYSIS ABSTRACT

Global warming and climate change in recent years is one of the much-discussed environmentalproblems. The main reason of this important environmental problem is athropogenic greenhouse gasesemissions from human activities. Within greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 emissions takes big share. Inthis context, aim of the study is to examine the relationships between carbon dioxide emissions and grossdomestic product variables in the fragile five (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, Turkey). The studycovers the years 1970-2016. Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test were used to examine therelationships between variables. The causality test results show that there is a unidirectional causalityrelationship from gdp per capita to CO2 per capita in Brazil and Indonesia. At the same time there is aunidirectional causality relationship from CO2 per capita to gdpp per capita in South Africa and Turkey.

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