VERGİ GELİRLERİNİN EKONOMİK BELİRLEYİCİLERİ ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ: YÜKSEK GELİRLİ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Çalışmanın amacı 19 yüksek gelirli OECD ülkesine ilişkin vergi gelirlerinin ekonomik belirleyicilerini analiz etmektir. Çalışma 1995-2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Ampirik analizde vergi gelirleri (% GSYH) bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılan ekonomik belirleyiciler ise kişi başına Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), ticari açıklık, enflasyon, kamu harcamaları ve tarımsal katma değer verileridir. Sabit etkiler Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (GMM) tahmincisi kullanılarak yapılan analiz sonucuna göre, kişi başına GSYH vergi gelirlerini istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif etkilemektedir. Kamu harcamaları ve tarımsal katma değer vergi gelirlerini istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve fakat negatif etkilemektedir. Ticari açıklık ve enflasyonun ise vergi gelirleri üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Vergi Gelirleri, Sabit Etkiler Modeli, , Dinamik Panel, OECD

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF TAX REVENUES: THE CASE OF HIGH INCOME OECD COUNTRIES

The aim of the study is to analyze the economic determinants of tax revenues for 19 high income OECD countries. The study covers the period 1995-2017. In empirical analysis, tax revenues (%GDP) is used as dependent variable Economic determinants used as independent variables are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, trade openness, inflation, public expenditures and agricultural value added data. According to the results of the analysis using the fixed effects Generalized Moments Method (GMM) estimator, the effect of per capita GDP on tax revenues has a statistically significant and positive. The effect of public expenditures and agricultural value added on tax revenues has a statistically significant but negative. On the other hand, the effect of trade openness and inflation on tax revenues did not have a statistically significant

Keywords:

Tax Revenues, Fixed Effect Model, Dynamic Panel, OECD,

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