OECD ÜLKELERİNDE KISA VADELİ SERMAYE AKIMLARI VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN CARİ AÇIK ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN STATİK VE DİNAMİK PANEL VERİ MODELLERİYLE TAHMİNİ

Bu çalışmada 19 OECD ülkesinde 1995-2010 dönemi için diğer değişkenlerin sabit olduğu varsayımı altında cari açık üzerinde kısa vadeli sermaye akımları ve ekonomik büyümenin etkili olup olmadığını alternatif tahmin yöntemlerinden hangisinin daha iyi tahmin ettiği araştırılmıştır. Bu bağlamda statik panel veri modellerinden sabit etkiler ve tesadüfî etkiler yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Dinamik panel veri modellerinden ise Arellano-Bond tarafından geliştirilen Genelleştirilmiş Moment yöntemi ve Blundell-Bond tarafından geliştirilen Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Moment yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Uygulanan bu yöntemler sonucunda çalışma konusunu oluşturan modeli statik panel veri için sabit etkiler yönteminin, dinamik panel veri için ise Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Moment yönteminin daha etkin ve tutarlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, sabit etkiler yöntemi ve Blundell-Bond yöntemine göre ise kısa vadeli sermaye akımlarının cari açığı negatif etkilediği sonucuna varılmıştır.

ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF SHORT TERM CAPITAL FLOWS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER THE CURRENT DEFICIT IN OECD COUNTRIES BY USING STATIC AND DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODELS

This study aims to investigate, which of the estimating methods is better, among the alternative estimating methods, in determining whether or not the short term capital flows and economic growth is decisive on the current account deficit, - under the assumption that other variables are constant - in 19 OECD countries for the period of 1995-2010. In this context, the fixed effects and random effects methods of static panel data models are used. Also from among dynamic panel data models, Generalized Moment method improved by Arellano-Bond and System Generalized Moment method improved by Blundell-Bond are employed. As the final result of using these methods, it is found that the fixed effects method for static panel data and System Generalized Moment method for dynamic panel data are more effective and consistent for the estimation of the model implemented in this research. In addition, according to the fixed effect method and Blundell-Bond method, it is concluded that short term capital flows has a negative impact on the current account deficit.

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