Determining the Effect of Foreign Trade On Employment in Turkey with Spatial Panel Data Analysis / Türkiye'de Dış Ticaretin İstihdam Üzerinde Etkisinin Mekânsal Panel Veri Analizi İle Belirlenmesi

Ekonomik büyüme ile doğru orantılı olan dış ticaret ve istihdam ilişkisinin incelendiği bu çalışmada, amaç istihdam üzerinde ithalat ve ihracat etkisini komşuluk ilişkilerinin dâhil edilerek araştırılmasıdır. Çalışmada, Türkiye 81 iline ait 4a, 4b ve 4c sigortalı sayısı istihdam değişkeni olarak ele alınırken yıllık ithalat, ihracat ve nüfus değerleri bağımsız değişken olarak kullanılmış ve 2009-2020 dönemi incelenmiştir. Komşuluk ilişkilerinin de etkisini dâhil eden mekânsal ekonometri uygulaması kullanılarak mekânsal Durbin, mekânsal gecikmeli ve mekânsal hata modeli olmak üzere üç başlık altında analizler yapılmıştır. Modeller Maksimum Olabilirlik (ML) yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada iller arasındaki istihdam oranlarındaki yakınsamayı incelemek için Moran’s I endeksi hesaplanmıştır. Mekânsal model sonuçlarına göre ihracatın istihdam ile ters yönde anlamlı bir ilişkisinin olduğu belirlenirken nüfus değişkeninin istihdam ile aynı yönde anlamlı bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. İthalat değişkeninin istihdam üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi tespit edilememiştir. Komşu illerin değişkenleri incelendiğinde ithalat ve istihdam değişkenlerinin anlamlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Mekânsal Analiz, Maksimum Olabilirlik, Dış Ticaret, İstihdam

Determining the Effect of Foreign Trade On Employment in Turkey with Spatial Panel Data Analysis / Türkiye'de Dış Ticaretin İstihdam Üzerinde Etkisinin Mekânsal Panel Veri Analizi İle Belirlenmesi

In this study, which examines the relationship between foreign trade and employment, which is directly proportional to economic growth, the aim is to investigate the effect of import and export on employment by including neighborhood relations. In the study, while the number of insured 4a, 4b and 4c in Turkey's 81 provinces is considered as employment variable, annual import, export and population values are also considered as independent variables and the period of 2009-2020 is examined. Using the spatial econometrics application, which also includes the effect of neighborhood relations, remarkable results were obtained in the study, which was examined under three headings: spatial Durbin, spatial autoregressive and spatial error model. Models were estimated using the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method. In the study, Moran's I index was calculated to examine the convergence in employment rates between provinces. According to the model results, it was determined that there is a significant inverse relationship between exports and employment. Population variable, on the other hand, was found to have a significant relationship in the same direction with employment. A significant effect of the import variable could not be determined. When the variables of neighboring provinces were examined, it was concluded that the variables of import and employment were significant.

Keywords:

spatial analysis, maximum likelihood, employment, Foreign Trade,

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