The Models of Exchange Rate Determination

1970'li yıllarda esnek fiyat para modeli, yapışkan fiyat para modeli ve portföy denge modeli olmak üzere üç model geliştirildi. Bu modellerin amaci özellikle esnek döviz kuru sistemi kabul edildikten sonraki dönemde, döviz kurlarındaki dalgalanmaları açıklamaktı. Yapılan ampirik çalışmaların sonuçları, genellikle bu modellerin tahminlerini desteklemiyordu. Bu makalenin amacı belirtilen modelleri teorik açıdan incelemek ve modellerle ilgili yapılan ampirik çalışmaların döviz kurlarında gözlenen dalgalanmaları açıklamakta ne kadar başarılı olduklarını belirlemektir.

During 1970s, three competing theories of exchange rate determination were developed: the flexible price monetary model, the sticky price monetary model, and the portfolio balance model. The aim of these models has been to give a plausible explanation to volatility in exchange rates, especially after the adoption of the flexible exchange rate system. The empirical findings of the models have not been supportive of the predictions of the models. The purpose of this paper is to analyze these theoretical models in a detailed form to evaluate whether they have been adequate in explaining volatility in exchange rates.

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